RCAT
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- RCAT +1.69% on the last session vs SPY +0.13%: +1.6 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices RCAT only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
4.94 +4.4% ↑ more often after a new 52-week low
reached 4 in 10 days · 36% vs usual 28% |
5.21 +10.1% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 4.81 · prior close 4.73 | |
| Bargain buy side |
4.53 -4.2% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 2 in 10 days · 24% vs usual 26% reached today |
4.30 -9.2% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 4.47 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% | 5.01 | 3 in 10 days↑ 25% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 4.53 | 2 in 10 days↓ 24% vs 26% | 4.94 | 4 in 10 days↑ 36% vs 28% |
| Eager | 4.59 | 4 in 10 days↓ 40% vs 41% | 4.87 | 5 in 10 days↑ 52% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 4.16 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 5.37 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 4.30 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 5.21 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 4.42 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 41% vs 43% | 5.06 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From RCAT's daily swings (about 4.4% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 16, 2026 | -10.9% | -7.1% | — | — |
| Jul 22, 2026 | -8.8% | -13.5% | +21.7% | — |
| Jul 7, 2026 | -8.7% | -4.8% | -6.2% | -31.3% |
| Jun 16, 2026 | -8.9% | -14.3% | -29.9% | -34.9% |
| Jun 5, 2026 | -14.0% | -11.8% | -27.7% | -34.0% |
| May 13, 2026 | -14.8% | -4.9% | +18.9% | +8.8% |
| Mar 27, 2026 | -9.4% | +3.0% | -10.6% | -18.6% |
| Mar 19, 2026 | -11.0% | -7.5% | -16.8% | -24.4% |
- Stretch price, next session: reached 36% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8, 2026 | -3.9% | — | — | — |
| Dec 6, 2023 | -11.0% | -25.7% | +7.9% | +11.8% |
| Dec 16, 2022 | -8.1% | -24.3% | +8.8% | -4.9% |
| Oct 19, 2022 | -5.1% | -4.7% | -15.4% | -28.2% |
| May 11, 2022 | -9.1% | +12.0% | +36.7% | +34.0% |
| Jan 20, 2022 | -6.2% | -12.7% | +8.8% | +24.9% |
- Bargain price, next session: reached 24% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 10 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among RCAT's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Mar 22, 2002 |
990,000.00 +20582020.8% |
| 52-week closing high Jan 22, 2026 |
17.36 +260.9% |
| 200-day average | 10.83 +125.2% |
| 50-day average | 7.86 +63.4% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 5.21 +8.3% |
| Now | 4.81 |
| 52-week closing low Oct 14, 2026 |
4.73 -1.7% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
4.73 -1.7% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 4.30 -10.7% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 25 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.