REGN
Moving with its group (XBI +1.9%)
- REGN +3.57% on the last session vs SPY −0.00%: +3.6 pts of stock-specific move.
- The biotech ETF (XBI) +1.9% (+1.9 pts vs SPY): the stock moved with its group.
- Aftermath, big gain (+3.6% today so far, past its big-gain line of +2.5%): After its 64 big gains in the past 5 years, REGN was higher a week later 35 times out of 64; half the outcomes fell between -2.5% and +2.5%. History, not a forecast.
- 4 analyst actions in the past 10 days (4 positive, 0 negative); latest: RBC Capital maintained Sector Perform, raised target $737 → $810.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices REGN only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
792.35 +1.8% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 26% vs usual 28% reached today |
810.00 +4.1% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 26% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 806.14 · prior close 778.36 | |
| Bargain buy side |
764.61 -1.8% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 25% vs usual 26% |
747.96 -3.9% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 760.20 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% | 796.95 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 764.61 | 3 in 10 days↓ 25% vs 26% | 792.35 | 3 in 10 days↓ 26% vs 28% |
| Eager | 768.75 | 4 in 10 days | 788.09 | 4 in 10 days↓ 42% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 738.34 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 820.54 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 15% vs 19% |
| Balanced | 747.96 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 810.00 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 26% vs 30% |
| Eager | 757.04 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 40% vs 43% | 800.28 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 44% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From REGN's daily swings (about 1.8% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 26% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next session: reached 25% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 26% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 10 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 1, 2026 | +3.1% | -2.0% | -10.8% | — |
| Aug 19, 2026 | +3.8% | -3.1% | -6.7% | — |
| Aug 10, 2026 | +3.0% | -0.3% | +0.1% | — |
| Jul 28, 2026 | +4.2% | +9.4% | +17.3% | — |
| Jul 2, 2026 | +4.7% | +1.6% | +16.0% | +12.4% |
| Jun 3, 2026 | +2.7% | -2.8% | +5.0% | +37.8% |
| May 20, 2026 | +3.2% | -4.3% | -5.7% | +27.4% |
| May 6, 2026 | +2.7% | -0.2% | -11.7% | +7.2% |
Big drop and big gain: among REGN's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Aug 27, 2024 |
1,190.53 +47.7% |
| Highest analyst target | 1,030.00 +27.8% |
| Mean analyst target | 859.04 +6.6% |
| 52-week closing high Sep 2, 2026 |
852.03 +5.7% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 810.00 +0.5% |
| Now | 806.14 |
| 50-day average | 790.53 -1.9% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
778.36 -3.4% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 747.96 -7.2% |
| 200-day average | 734.01 -8.9% |
| Lowest analyst target | 730.00 -9.4% |
| 52-week closing low Oct 16, 2025 |
566.27 -29.8% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 36 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.