REZI
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- REZI +1.79% on the last session vs SPY +0.09%: +1.7 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices REZI only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
16.67 +2.8% ↑ more often after a new 52-week low
reached 4 in 10 days · 36% vs usual 28% reached today |
17.25 +6.4% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 16.50 · prior close 16.21 | |
| Bargain buy side |
15.77 -2.7% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 2 in 10 days · 24% vs usual 26% |
15.24 -6.0% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 15.63 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% | 16.82 | 3 in 10 days↑ 25% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 15.77 | 2 in 10 days↓ 24% vs 26% | 16.67 | 4 in 10 days↑ 36% vs 28% |
| Eager | 15.90 | 4 in 10 days↓ 40% vs 41% | 16.53 | 5 in 10 days↑ 52% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 14.93 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 17.60 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 15.24 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 17.25 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 15.52 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 41% vs 43% | 16.93 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From REZI's daily swings (about 2.9% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 36% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 17, 2026 | -0.8% | -1.2% | — | — |
| Apr 3, 2025 | -11.8% | -5.2% | +7.2% | +43.0% |
| Mar 4, 2025 | -5.3% | +0.9% | +5.8% | +18.9% |
| Oct 13, 2023 | -4.7% | -0.7% | +6.7% | +13.0% |
| Aug 4, 2023 | -14.9% | +8.1% | +8.1% | +1.7% |
| Nov 2, 2022 | -32.2% | -2.4% | -0.1% | +24.8% |
| Sep 22, 2022 | -4.8% | +1.7% | +13.9% | -12.9% |
| Jun 13, 2022 | -5.6% | -4.7% | -3.7% | -0.1% |
- Bargain price, next session: reached 24% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 10 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among REZI's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time and 52-week closing high Oct 24, 2025 |
30.97 +87.7% |
| 200-day average | 23.13 +40.2% |
| 50-day average | 19.52 +18.3% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 17.25 +4.5% |
| Now | 16.50 |
| 52-week closing low Oct 14, 2026 |
16.21 -1.8% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
16.21 -1.8% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 15.24 -7.7% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 8 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.