RGA
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- RGA +1.45% on the last session vs SPY +0.32%: +1.1 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices RGA only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
263.94 +1.1% ↓ less often after a new 52-week high
reached 3 in 10 days · 25% vs usual 28% reached today |
267.56 +2.5% ↓ less often after a new 52-week high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 27% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 264.85 · prior close 261.05 | |
| Bargain buy side |
258.19 -1.1% reached 3 in 10 days |
254.70 -2.4% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 257.27 | 2 in 10 days | 264.89 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 258.19 | 3 in 10 days | 263.94 | 3 in 10 days↓ 25% vs 28% |
| Eager | 259.05 | 4 in 10 days | 263.06 | 4 in 10 days↓ 43% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 252.67 | 2 in 10 weeks | 269.71 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 19% |
| Balanced | 254.70 | 3 in 10 weeks | 267.56 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 27% vs 30% |
| Eager | 256.60 | 4 in 10 weeks | 265.57 | 5 in 10 weeks↓ 45% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From RGA's daily swings (about 1.1% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 25% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 10 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 27% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 9 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8, 2026 | +1.7% | — | — | — |
| Aug 7, 2026 | +4.2% | +1.3% | +0.7% | — |
| Jul 6, 2026 | +1.4% | +6.2% | +5.4% | +11.7% |
| Nov 6, 2024 | +6.9% | +1.6% | -2.9% | -11.6% |
| Jul 12, 2024 | +0.4% | +0.4% | -4.5% | +1.2% |
| May 3, 2024 | +5.5% | +3.5% | +2.6% | -4.1% |
| Mar 26, 2024 | +0.7% | +0.6% | -0.8% | +6.9% |
| Feb 23, 2024 | +1.0% | +1.6% | +10.1% | +21.2% |
Big drop and big gain: among RGA's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 267.56 +1.0% |
| Now | 264.85 |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Oct 15, 2026 |
264.85 0.0% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
261.05 -1.4% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 254.70 -3.8% |
| 50-day average | 248.44 -6.2% |
| 200-day average | 220.00 -16.9% |
| 52-week closing low Nov 3, 2025 |
178.40 -32.6% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 18 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.