RH
Reddit attention is surging
- RH +6.05% on the last session vs SPY +0.10%: +6.0 pts of stock-specific move.
- 1 insider or congressional trade in the past 30 days.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
- Activity: volume on pace for 2.0× its 20-day average.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices RH only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
113.86 +2.6% ↑ more often after a new 52-week low
reached 4 in 10 days · 36% vs usual 28% reached today |
117.50 +5.9% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 117.71 · prior close 110.99 | |
| Bargain buy side |
108.20 -2.5% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 2 in 10 days · 24% vs usual 26% |
104.84 -5.5% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 107.30 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% | 114.80 | 3 in 10 days↑ 25% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 108.20 | 2 in 10 days↓ 24% vs 26% | 113.86 | 4 in 10 days↑ 36% vs 28% |
| Eager | 109.03 | 4 in 10 days↓ 40% vs 41% | 112.98 | 5 in 10 days↑ 52% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 102.92 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 119.70 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 104.84 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 117.50 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 106.67 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 41% vs 43% | 115.49 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From RH's daily swings (about 2.6% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 36% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2026 | -6.3% | +2.4% | -3.9% | +21.3% |
| Nov 17, 2025 | -4.6% | +4.9% | +19.6% | +43.6% |
| Apr 3, 2025 | -40.1% | +15.2% | +24.7% | +32.8% |
| Oct 19, 2023 | -3.6% | -6.8% | +12.2% | +15.2% |
| Jun 30, 2022 | -10.6% | +23.5% | +32.9% | +18.0% |
| May 24, 2022 | -4.0% | +17.7% | +8.9% | +18.9% |
| Apr 22, 2022 | -5.1% | +5.0% | -19.9% | -17.9% |
| Mar 4, 2022 | -7.3% | -11.3% | -9.7% | -16.9% |
- Bargain price, next session: reached 24% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 10 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among RH's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Aug 12, 2021 |
738.52 +527.4% |
| 52-week closing high Jan 16, 2026 |
232.90 +97.9% |
| 200-day average | 157.18 +33.5% |
| 50-day average | 140.95 +19.7% |
| Now | 117.71 |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 117.50 -0.2% |
| 52-week closing low Oct 14, 2026 |
110.99 -5.7% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
110.99 -5.7% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 104.84 -10.9% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 14 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.