RKLB
Neutron rocket launch delayed to 2027
- RKLB −10.13% on the last session vs SPY +0.12%: −10.3 pts of stock-specific move.
- News: Rocket Lab pushed back Neutron's maiden flight to 2027 due to manufacturing problems, per Proactive Investors. (proactiveinvestors.com)
- Not a group move: its space peers +0.2% (+0.0 pts vs SPY).
- Filing: 8-K: Reg FD disclosure, other event (item 7.01, 8.01) (filing)
- Aftermath, mention spike (trendy) (68 mentions vs 19.9/day the week before): After its 52 mention spikes in the past 5 years, RKLB was higher a month later 35 times out of 52; half the outcomes fell between -9.6% and +29.0%. History, not a forecast.
- 143 Reddit mentions in the past 24 hours, 70% positive over the week · today's pace is 3.4× its recent daily average.
- 3 analyst actions in the past 10 days (0 positive, 1 negative); latest: TD Cowen maintained Buy, lowered target $120 → $90.00.
- 1 insider or congressional trade in the past 30 days.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
- Activity: volume on pace for 3.5× its 20-day average.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices RKLB only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
61.49 +3.9% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
64.47 +8.9% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 53.18 · prior close 59.18 | |
| Bargain buy side |
56.96 -3.8% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 2 in 10 days · 24% vs usual 26% reached today |
54.32 -8.2% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 56.25 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% | 62.26 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 56.96 | 2 in 10 days↓ 24% vs 26% | 61.49 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 57.62 | 4 in 10 days↓ 40% vs 41% | 60.78 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 52.83 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 66.29 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 54.32 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 64.47 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 55.75 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 41% vs 43% | 62.82 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From RKLB's daily swings (about 4.0% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 24, 2026 | -8.7% | +1.6% | +6.8% | — |
| Jul 16, 2026 | -11.6% | +3.9% | +19.2% | -12.1% |
| Jul 6, 2026 | -7.3% | -17.6% | -20.0% | -20.6% |
| Jun 24, 2026 | -10.2% | +17.2% | -25.2% | -17.7% |
| Jun 12, 2026 | -10.8% | -2.1% | -25.6% | -38.9% |
| Jun 1, 2026 | -14.7% | -7.1% | -18.2% | -47.8% |
| May 15, 2026 | -5.9% | +8.8% | -16.1% | -34.2% |
| May 7, 2026 | -7.2% | +68.7% | +44.6% | +5.4% |
- Bargain price, next session: reached 24% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 10 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among RKLB's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time and 52-week closing high May 27, 2026 |
150.23 +182.5% |
| Highest analyst target | 150.00 +182.0% |
| Mean analyst target | 105.05 +97.5% |
| 200-day average | 81.35 +53.0% |
| 50-day average | 69.68 +31.0% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 64.47 +21.2% |
| Lowest analyst target | 64.00 +20.3% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
59.18 +11.3% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 54.32 +2.1% |
| Now | 53.18 |
| 52-week closing low Nov 20, 2025 |
39.48 -25.8% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 6 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.