RKT
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- RKT +4.37% on the last session vs SPY +0.04%: +4.3 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices RKT only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
10.82 +2.7% ↑ more often after a new 52-week low
reached 4 in 10 days · 36% vs usual 28% reached today |
11.19 +6.2% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 10.99 · prior close 10.53 | |
| Bargain buy side |
10.25 -2.7% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 2 in 10 days · 24% vs usual 26% |
9.91 -5.9% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 10.16 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% | 10.91 | 3 in 10 days↑ 25% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 10.25 | 2 in 10 days↓ 24% vs 26% | 10.82 | 4 in 10 days↑ 36% vs 28% |
| Eager | 10.33 | 4 in 10 days↓ 40% vs 41% | 10.73 | 5 in 10 days↑ 52% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 9.72 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 11.41 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 9.91 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 11.19 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 10.10 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 41% vs 43% | 10.98 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From RKT's daily swings (about 2.8% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 36% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 18, 2026 | -2.2% | -1.0% | — | — |
| Jun 8, 2026 | -2.4% | +12.6% | +17.9% | +11.8% |
| Jan 2, 2025 | -3.6% | -5.3% | +12.2% | +50.0% |
| Sep 30, 2022 | -2.3% | +5.9% | +9.2% | +10.8% |
| Jun 13, 2022 | -9.1% | -5.6% | +18.4% | +7.7% |
| May 9, 2022 | -2.1% | -1.4% | +2.4% | +14.6% |
| Apr 6, 2022 | -7.6% | -4.6% | -14.7% | -14.9% |
| Feb 23, 2022 | -3.9% | +24.5% | +5.8% | -15.0% |
- Bargain price, next session: reached 24% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 10 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among RKT's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Mar 2, 2021 |
34.95 +218.0% |
| 52-week closing high Jan 15, 2026 |
23.44 +113.3% |
| 200-day average | 15.22 +38.5% |
| 50-day average | 12.95 +17.9% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 11.19 +1.8% |
| Now | 10.99 |
| 52-week closing low Oct 14, 2026 |
10.53 -4.2% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
10.53 -4.2% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 9.91 -9.8% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 6 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.