RL
Moving with the market
- RL +0.20% on the last session vs SPY +0.74%: −0.5 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, crossed above 200-day avg (Oct 2): After its 8 crosses above the 200-day average in the past 5 years, RL typically gained 9.5% over the next month (median) and was higher 88% of the time; half the outcomes fell between +4.9% and +11.8%. An ordinary month: +1.7%. Among S&P 500 stocks after crosses above the 200-day average, that ranks #16 of 497.
- Market backdrop (Fri): Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.1% vs 0.3% expected (cooler); Non-Farm Employment Change 29K vs 89K expected (weaker); S&P futures +0.41%, 10-year yield -5bp in the 30 minutes after.
After each kind of event
| Event | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any day | 1,255 | +0.1%#218 H | +0.4%#143 H | +1.7%#103 H | +6.0%#67 M |
| Big drop (-2.3% or worse) | 57 | +0.6%#53 H | +0.1%#352 H | +3.8%#36 H | +8.6%#56 M |
| Big gain (+2.6% or better) | 64 | -0.1%#376 H | -0.4%#344 H | +4.2%#34 H | +12.3%#24 M |
| Earnings beat | 20 | +1.0%#27 H | +4.0%#59 H | +3.4%#62 H | +3.4%#181 M |
| Earnings miss | — | — | — | — | — |
| 52-week high | 17 | -0.3%#452 M | -0.3%#377 M | +1.2%#167 M | +2.8%#206 M |
| 52-week low | — | — | — | — | — |
| Crossed above 200-day avg latest session | 9 | 0.0%#254 M | +0.1%#268 M | +9.5%#16 M | +21.4%#41 L |
| Crossed below 200-day avg | 8 | +0.2%#198 M | +1.2%#209 M | +14.7%#95 M | +27.6%#43 L |
| RSI oversold | 5 | -0.1%#262 L | +0.1%#264 L | +2.6%#238 L | +15.7%#60 L |
| RSI overbought | 19 | -0.1%#277 M | -1.4%#483 M | +0.2%#293 M | +2.8%#173 M |
| Mention spike (Trendy) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Analyst upgrade | — | — | — | — | — |
| Analyst downgrade | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider buy | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider unplanned sale | — | — | — | — | — |
Median gain from the close of the session the event was known, over each holding period; #rank among the S&P 500 stocks after the same kind of event (#1 = best). "Big" is RL's own: its worst / best 10% of days over the prior 2 years. Highlighted: happening in the latest session.
RSI overbought
The 14-day RSI rises above 70.
| Holding | Events | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Rank | Up | vs SPY | Range of outcomes (worst · 25–75% · median · best) | vs S&P 500 stocks (their medians) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 19 | -0.05% (-0.7 to +0.9) | Medium | #277 of 501 | 47% | -0.14% |
-4%
+3%
|
|
| 1 week | 19 | -1.37% (-1.6 to 0.0) | Medium | #483 of 501 | 37% | -0.02% |
-7%
+7%
|
|
| 1 month | 19 ≈18 indep. | +0.23% (-1.5 to +2.9) | Medium | #293 of 501 | 58% | -1.11% |
-20%
+12%
|
|
| 1 quarter | 19 ≈12 indep. | +2.78% (-0.3 to +12.0) | Medium | #173 of 501 | 63% | +1.92% |
-25%
+44%
|
Range of outcomes: all of RL's overbought readings in the past 5 years, from the worst to the best result over each holding period; the box holds the middle half, the tick is the median. A wide box means the median alone says little. Hover the median for the average.
RSI overbought by trend
| When it happened | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long trendAbove its 200-day avg now | 19 | -0.1%M vs 0.0% | -1.4%M vs +0.4% | +0.2%M vs +2.2% | +2.8%M vs +7.7% |
| Below its 200-day avg | — | — | — | — | — |
| Medium trendAbove its 50-day avg now | 19 | -0.1%M vs 0.0% | -1.4%M vs +0.3% | +0.2%M vs +1.6% | +2.8%M vs +4.6% |
| Below its 50-day avg | — | — | — | — | — |
| Short trendAbove its 20-day avg now | 19 | -0.1%M vs 0.0% | -1.4%M vs +0.2% | +0.2%M vs +1.1% | +2.8%M vs +2.5% |
| Below its 20-day avg | — | — | — | — | — |
The same event split by where RL stood against its 200-, 50- and 20-day averages when it happened (a dip in an uptrend vs a falling knife); "vs" is the plain any-day median in that trend; "now" marks where it stands today. Splitting halves the evidence, so watch the confidence letters: H / M / L.
Latest overbought readings
| Event | Entry | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 25, 2025 | Nov 25 @ $360.67 | RSI 70.6, +4.2% on the day | +1.8% | -1.7% | -1.5% | -0.3% |
| Sep 4, 2025 | Sep 4 @ $316.43 | RSI 72.2, +2.4% on the day | -2.7% | -1.4% | +0.6% | +12.0% |
| Jul 25, 2025 | Jul 25 @ $294.21 | RSI 70.3, +1.0% on the day | +1.2% | -1.5% | -3.6% | +13.1% |
| May 27, 2025 | May 27 @ $281.42 | RSI 74.5, +4.4% on the day | -0.7% | -1.5% | -4.4% | +2.8% |
| May 8, 2025 | May 8 @ $247.25 | RSI 70.6, +4.6% on the day | -1.1% | +7.0% | +7.5% | +15.0% |
| Feb 6, 2025 | Feb 6 @ $267.57 | RSI 71.6, +9.7% on the day | -1.5% | +2.0% | -20.0% | -7.6% |
| Jan 6, 2025 | Jan 6 @ $238.01 | RSI 71.0, +3.6% on the day | -0.2% | -2.2% | +12.4% | -24.7% |
| Nov 29, 2024 | Nov 29 @ $225.88 | RSI 71.8, +3.9% on the day | +0.9% | -0.3% | +0.2% | +8.6% |
| Nov 7, 2024 | Nov 7 @ $216.41 | RSI 75.5, +6.6% on the day | +0.4% | -4.6% | +2.9% | +23.2% |
| Oct 10, 2024 | Oct 10 @ $194.37 | RSI 72.2, +1.7% on the day | +1.4% | +1.9% | +11.8% | +19.2% |
| Sep 23, 2024 | Sep 23 @ $180.71 | RSI 70.2, +0.3% on the day | +2.5% | +4.7% | +7.6% | +24.4% |
| May 28, 2024 | May 28 @ $175.36 | RSI 70.0, +4.5% on the day | +1.2% | -0.1% | -3.0% | -4.4% |
| Mar 20, 2024 | Mar 20 @ $183.38 | RSI 70.6, +3.3% on the day | +0.1% | -1.6% | -16.4% | -2.6% |
| Feb 8, 2024 | Feb 8 @ $165.58 | RSI 84.4, +16.8% on the day | +1.8% | +5.4% | +3.8% | -1.8% |
| Jan 2, 2024 | Jan 2 @ $140.71 | RSI 71.4, +1.3% on the day | -2.4% | -2.0% | +0.2% | +19.1% |
Aftermath: entry is the close of the first session the event was fully known (the same session for price moves, the reaction session for earnings, the next session for Reddit, analyst and insider events, which are dated by day). Repeats within a few sessions count as one event. Past performance after an event says nothing certain about the next one. Not advice.