RL
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- RL +4.15% on the last session vs SPY +0.10%: +4.1 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, rsi overbought (RSI 72 today so far, above 70): After its 19 overbought readings in the past 5 years, RL was higher a week later 7 times out of 19; half the outcomes fell between -1.8% and +1.6%. History, not a forecast.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices RL only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
380.88 +1.5% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
387.94 +3.4% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 390.86 · prior close 375.27 | |
| Bargain buy side |
369.74 -1.5% reached 3 in 10 days |
363.02 -3.3% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 367.96 | 2 in 10 days | 382.72 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 369.74 | 3 in 10 days | 380.88 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 371.41 | 4 in 10 days | 379.17 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 359.12 | 2 in 10 weeks | 392.14 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 363.02 | 3 in 10 weeks | 387.94 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 366.68 | 4 in 10 weeks | 384.06 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From RL's daily swings (about 1.5% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among RL's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 520.00 +33.0% |
| Mean analyst target | 446.71 +14.3% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Jun 24, 2026 |
412.07 +5.4% |
| Now | 390.86 |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 387.94 -0.7% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
375.27 -4.0% |
| 200-day average | 363.82 -6.9% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 363.02 -7.1% |
| 50-day average | 361.00 -7.6% |
| 52-week closing low Nov 4, 2025 |
306.04 -21.7% |
| Lowest analyst target | 250.00 -36.0% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 29 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.