RMD
Moving with its group (XLV +2.6%)
- RMD +2.07% on the last session vs SPY −0.03%: +2.1 pts of stock-specific move.
- The health care ETF (XLV) +2.6% (+2.5 pts vs SPY): the stock moved with its group.
- Aftermath, rsi overbought (RSI 72 today so far, above 70): After its 13 overbought readings in the past 5 years, RMD was higher a month later 4 times out of 13; half the outcomes fell between -6.2% and +0.1%. History, not a forecast.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices RMD only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
238.52 +1.4% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
242.57 +3.1% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 240.17 · prior close 235.29 | |
| Bargain buy side |
232.10 -1.4% reached 3 in 10 days |
228.23 -3.0% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 231.08 | 2 in 10 days | 239.58 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 232.10 | 3 in 10 days | 238.52 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 233.06 | 4 in 10 days | 237.54 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 225.98 | 2 in 10 weeks | 244.98 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 228.23 | 3 in 10 weeks | 242.57 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 230.34 | 4 in 10 weeks | 240.34 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From RMD's daily swings (about 1.4% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among RMD's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 320.00 +33.2% |
| All-time closing high Aug 22, 2025 |
290.65 +21.0% |
| 52-week closing high Feb 9, 2026 |
273.72 +14.0% |
| Mean analyst target | 250.22 +4.2% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 242.57 +1.0% |
| Now | 240.17 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
235.29 -2.0% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 228.23 -5.0% |
| 50-day average | 226.49 -5.7% |
| 200-day average | 224.11 -6.7% |
| 52-week closing low Jun 2, 2026 |
182.30 -24.1% |
| Lowest analyst target | 175.00 -27.1% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 31 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.