RNG
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- RNG +3.92% on the last session vs SPY +0.05%: +3.9 pts of stock-specific move.
- Earnings Oct 22 after the close: EPS $0.69 expected (5 analysts).
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices RNG only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
77.38 +2.9% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% reached today |
80.17 +6.6% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 78.15 · prior close 75.20 | |
| Bargain buy side |
73.08 -2.8% reached 3 in 10 days |
70.54 -6.2% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 72.40 | 2 in 10 days | 78.10 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 73.08 | 3 in 10 days | 77.38 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 73.72 | 4 in 10 days | 76.71 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 69.09 | 2 in 10 weeks | 81.85 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 70.54 | 3 in 10 weeks | 80.17 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 71.92 | 4 in 10 weeks | 78.63 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From RNG's daily swings (about 3.0% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 18, 2026 | -3.9% | +6.0% | — | — |
| Sep 4, 2026 | -3.9% | -1.5% | +5.3% | — |
| Aug 14, 2026 | -4.9% | +3.9% | +12.3% | — |
| Jul 30, 2026 | -7.1% | +15.8% | +30.0% | — |
| Jul 22, 2026 | -4.8% | +52.9% | +74.5% | — |
| Jun 17, 2026 | -6.6% | -2.5% | +14.6% | +110.8% |
| Jun 2, 2026 | -5.4% | -15.4% | -13.7% | +52.9% |
| May 6, 2026 | -4.3% | -15.3% | -7.4% | +35.7% |
Big drop and big gain: among RNG's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Feb 12, 2021 |
440.92 +464.2% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 80.17 +2.6% |
| 52-week closing high Sep 24, 2026 |
79.82 +2.1% |
| Now | 78.15 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
75.20 -3.8% |
| 50-day average | 71.84 -8.1% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 70.54 -9.7% |
| 200-day average | 46.26 -40.8% |
| 52-week closing low Feb 3, 2026 |
24.69 -68.4% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 13 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.