ROG
Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- ROG −2.99% on the last session vs SPY +0.08%: −3.1 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices ROG only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
143.89 +3.0% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
149.23 +6.8% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 135.54 · prior close 139.72 | |
| Bargain buy side |
135.67 -2.9% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
130.82 -6.4% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 134.38 | 2 in 10 days | 145.28 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 135.67 | 3 in 10 days | 143.89 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 136.88 | 4 in 10 days | 142.62 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 128.05 | 2 in 10 weeks | 152.45 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 130.82 | 3 in 10 weeks | 149.23 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 133.45 | 4 in 10 weeks | 146.28 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From ROG's daily swings (about 3.0% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8, 2026 | -3.8% | — | — | — |
| Sep 14, 2026 | -3.4% | -1.6% | +11.0% | — |
| Aug 18, 2026 | -6.3% | -8.8% | -4.3% | — |
| Aug 10, 2026 | -4.5% | +13.7% | +1.0% | — |
| Jul 28, 2026 | -7.8% | +11.1% | +5.8% | — |
| Jul 16, 2026 | -3.1% | -0.8% | +6.6% | +4.2% |
| Jul 1, 2026 | -4.1% | -11.5% | -21.4% | -2.6% |
| Jun 23, 2026 | -4.4% | +2.9% | -16.4% | -13.3% |
Big drop and big gain: among ROG's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Jan 7, 2022 |
273.96 +102.1% |
| 52-week closing high Jun 25, 2026 |
167.09 +23.3% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 149.23 +10.1% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
139.72 +3.1% |
| 50-day average | 136.20 +0.5% |
| Now | 135.54 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 130.82 -3.5% |
| 200-day average | 125.64 -7.3% |
| 52-week closing low Nov 20, 2025 |
75.56 -44.3% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 47 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.