ROK
Moving with the market
- ROK −0.42% on the last session vs SPY +0.13%: −0.6 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, crossed below 200-day avg (Oct 14): After its 11 crosses below the 200-day average in the past 5 years, ROK was higher a day later 7 times out of 11; half the outcomes fell between -0.4% and +1.0%. History, not a forecast.
- 1 insider or congressional trade in the past 30 days.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices ROK only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
429.17 +1.4% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
436.38 +3.1% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 421.63 · prior close 423.42 | |
| Bargain buy side |
417.75 -1.3% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
410.84 -3.0% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 415.92 | 2 in 10 days | 431.05 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 417.75 | 3 in 10 days | 429.17 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 419.46 | 4 in 10 days | 427.42 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 406.84 | 2 in 10 weeks | 440.68 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 410.84 | 3 in 10 weeks | 436.38 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 414.61 | 4 in 10 weeks | 432.42 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From ROK's daily swings (about 1.4% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 7, 2026 | -2.0% | -4.2% | — | — |
| Sep 14, 2026 | -2.2% | +1.4% | +3.2% | — |
| Aug 18, 2026 | -2.5% | -1.0% | -5.4% | — |
| Jul 29, 2026 | -2.5% | -2.0% | -5.5% | — |
| Jul 13, 2026 | -2.5% | -0.4% | -2.9% | -5.8% |
| Jul 1, 2026 | -2.5% | -3.2% | -0.6% | -9.6% |
| Jun 23, 2026 | -4.5% | +8.5% | +0.9% | -6.1% |
| Jun 5, 2026 | -3.4% | +2.8% | +3.8% | -2.6% |
Big drop and big gain: among ROK's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 550.00 +30.4% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Jun 30, 2026 |
493.56 +17.1% |
| Mean analyst target | 477.12 +13.2% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 436.38 +3.5% |
| 50-day average | 432.40 +2.6% |
| 200-day average | 423.73 +0.5% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
423.42 +0.4% |
| Now | 421.63 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 410.84 -2.6% |
| 52-week closing low Oct 14, 2025 |
339.47 -19.5% |
| Lowest analyst target | 282.00 -33.1% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 45 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.