ROL
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- ROL +3.63% on the last session vs SPY +0.01%: +3.6 pts of stock-specific move.
- Earnings Wed after the close: EPS $0.35 expected (14 analysts); it moved ±5.8% on average after its last 8 reports.
- Aftermath, big gain (+3.6% today so far, past its big-gain line of +1.5%): After its 61 big gains in the past 5 years, ROL was higher a day later 32 times out of 61; half the outcomes fell between -0.9% and +0.9%. History, not a forecast.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices ROL only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
33.27 +2.0% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 26% vs usual 28% reached today |
34.09 +4.5% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 26% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 33.81 · prior close 32.63 | |
| Bargain buy side |
32.00 -1.9% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 25% vs usual 26% |
31.23 -4.3% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 31.80 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% | 33.49 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 32.00 | 3 in 10 days↓ 25% vs 26% | 33.27 | 3 in 10 days↓ 26% vs 28% |
| Eager | 32.19 | 4 in 10 days | 33.08 | 4 in 10 days↓ 42% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 30.79 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 34.58 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 15% vs 19% |
| Balanced | 31.23 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 34.09 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 26% vs 30% |
| Eager | 31.65 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 40% vs 43% | 33.64 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 44% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From ROL's daily swings (about 2.0% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 26% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next session: reached 25% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 26% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 10 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1, 2026 | +1.5% | +5.5% | — | — |
| Sep 22, 2026 | +1.6% | -7.2% | — | — |
| Sep 14, 2026 | +1.7% | -8.4% | -8.9% | — |
| Aug 21, 2026 | +1.5% | -1.4% | -11.0% | — |
| Aug 7, 2026 | +2.5% | -3.6% | -6.9% | — |
| Jul 16, 2026 | +3.9% | -13.2% | -20.0% | -27.9% |
| Jul 2, 2026 | +2.9% | +2.5% | -12.0% | -29.2% |
| Jun 3, 2026 | +1.7% | +4.3% | -6.7% | -21.6% |
Big drop and big gain: among ROL's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 66.00 +95.2% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Feb 11, 2026 |
64.86 +91.8% |
| 200-day average | 48.03 +42.0% |
| Mean analyst target | 42.41 +25.4% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 34.09 +0.8% |
| 50-day average | 34.08 +0.8% |
| Now | 33.81 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
32.63 -3.5% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 31.23 -7.6% |
| 52-week closing low Oct 5, 2026 |
29.69 -12.2% |
| Lowest analyst target | 27.00 -20.2% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 47 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.