ROP
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices ROP only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Next session | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
478.53 +2.6% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 26% vs usual 28% |
493.70 +5.8% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 26% vs usual 30% |
| Last close | 466.60 | |
| Bargain buy side |
454.97 -2.5% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 25% vs usual 26% |
440.98 -5.5% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Next session | ||||
| Patient | 451.25 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% | 482.47 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 454.97 | 3 in 10 days↓ 25% vs 26% | 478.53 | 3 in 10 days↓ 26% vs 28% |
| Eager | 458.46 | 4 in 10 days | 474.89 | 4 in 10 days↓ 42% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 432.97 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 502.84 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 15% vs 19% |
| Balanced | 440.98 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 493.70 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 26% vs 30% |
| Eager | 448.59 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 40% vs 43% | 485.34 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 44% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From ROP's daily swings (about 2.6% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 30 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 30 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 26% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next session: reached 25% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 26% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 10 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 29, 2026 | +2.0% | — | — | — |
| Oct 15, 2026 | +2.6% | +14.1% | — | — |
| Oct 1, 2026 | +3.8% | +0.7% | +29.0% | — |
| Sep 14, 2026 | +1.6% | -7.4% | -6.4% | — |
| Aug 27, 2026 | +2.3% | -0.1% | -16.3% | — |
| Aug 19, 2026 | +3.3% | +1.5% | -8.5% | — |
| Jul 24, 2026 | +3.4% | +6.7% | +13.1% | +19.1% |
| Jul 16, 2026 | +4.5% | -2.5% | +9.6% | +2.6% |
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 5, 2025 | +1.5% | -4.6% | -2.4% | -4.2% |
| Jan 31, 2025 | +0.9% | -0.5% | +1.6% | -1.5% |
| Dec 4, 2024 | +1.6% | -4.4% | -11.8% | +0.2% |
| Jun 21, 2024 | +0.4% | +0.4% | +2.4% | -0.5% |
| Jan 23, 2024 | +0.5% | +1.6% | +0.5% | -2.3% |
| Dec 12, 2023 | +0.6% | -0.3% | -1.6% | +0.8% |
| Nov 7, 2023 | +0.8% | +3.5% | +5.5% | +7.7% |
| Aug 30, 2023 | +0.9% | -1.6% | -3.6% | +4.8% |
Big drop and big gain: among ROP's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Mar 5, 2025 |
585.47 +25.5% |
| Highest analyst target | 550.00 +17.9% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 493.70 +5.8% |
| Mean analyst target | 466.79 0.0% |
| Last close Oct 30, 2026 |
466.60 |
| 52-week closing high Oct 30, 2026 |
466.60 0.0% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 440.98 -5.5% |
| 50-day average | 391.77 -16.0% |
| 200-day average | 363.29 -22.1% |
| Lowest analyst target | 335.00 -28.2% |
| 52-week closing low Feb 17, 2026 |
313.15 -32.9% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 35 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from the last close. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.