ROST
Moving with its group (XLY +1.4%)
- ROST +2.09% on the last session vs SPY +0.01%: +2.1 pts of stock-specific move.
- The consumer discretionary ETF (XLY) +1.4% (+1.3 pts vs SPY): the stock moved with its group.
- Aftermath, big gain (+2.1% today so far, past its big-gain line of +1.8%): After its 58 big gains in the past 5 years, ROST was higher a week later 37 times out of 58; half the outcomes fell between -0.6% and +2.5%. History, not a forecast.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices ROST only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
233.53 +1.3% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 26% vs usual 28% reached today |
237.23 +2.9% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 26% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 235.40 · prior close 230.57 | |
| Bargain buy side |
227.65 -1.3% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 25% vs usual 26% |
224.09 -2.8% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 226.71 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% | 234.50 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 227.65 | 3 in 10 days↓ 25% vs 26% | 233.53 | 3 in 10 days↓ 26% vs 28% |
| Eager | 228.53 | 4 in 10 days | 232.63 | 4 in 10 days↓ 42% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 222.03 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 239.44 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 15% vs 19% |
| Balanced | 224.09 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 237.23 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 26% vs 30% |
| Eager | 226.03 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 40% vs 43% | 235.20 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 44% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From ROST's daily swings (about 1.3% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 26% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next session: reached 25% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 26% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 10 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 21, 2026 | +2.0% | +2.5% | — | — |
| Sep 11, 2026 | +2.3% | -1.8% | -2.1% | — |
| Aug 21, 2026 | +4.4% | -4.4% | -2.5% | — |
| Jul 24, 2026 | +2.8% | +5.1% | +1.1% | — |
| Jul 15, 2026 | +2.2% | +5.5% | +8.5% | +0.1% |
| Jun 30, 2026 | +1.9% | +2.3% | +18.7% | +10.3% |
| Jun 22, 2026 | +1.8% | -11.9% | +0.5% | -2.2% |
| Jun 11, 2026 | +3.1% | -2.6% | -7.6% | -3.3% |
Big drop and big gain: among ROST's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 310.00 +31.7% |
| Mean analyst target | 268.61 +14.1% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Aug 7, 2026 |
254.74 +8.2% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 237.23 +0.8% |
| Now | 235.40 |
| 50-day average | 233.47 -0.8% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
230.57 -2.1% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 224.09 -4.8% |
| 200-day average | 219.21 -6.9% |
| Lowest analyst target | 187.00 -20.6% |
| 52-week closing low Oct 16, 2025 |
153.93 -34.6% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 41 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.