RPRX
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- RPRX +1.11% on the last session vs SPY +0.05%: +1.1 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices RPRX only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
59.93 +1.6% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 26% vs usual 28% reached today |
61.11 +3.6% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 26% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 59.65 · prior close 58.99 | |
| Bargain buy side |
58.07 -1.6% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 25% vs usual 26% |
56.95 -3.5% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 57.77 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% | 60.23 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 58.07 | 3 in 10 days↓ 25% vs 26% | 59.93 | 3 in 10 days↓ 26% vs 28% |
| Eager | 58.35 | 4 in 10 days | 59.64 | 4 in 10 days↓ 42% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 56.30 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 61.81 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 15% vs 19% |
| Balanced | 56.95 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 61.11 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 26% vs 30% |
| Eager | 57.56 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 40% vs 43% | 60.46 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 44% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From RPRX's daily swings (about 1.6% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 26% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next session: reached 25% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 26% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 10 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2026 | +3.4% | +0.1% | -5.4% | — |
| Aug 10, 2026 | +2.1% | +3.0% | +4.9% | — |
| Jul 28, 2026 | +2.1% | -4.2% | +3.5% | — |
| Jul 16, 2026 | +3.9% | +0.8% | +0.5% | +1.2% |
| Jul 2, 2026 | +3.6% | -2.3% | -1.0% | +0.2% |
| Jun 23, 2026 | +3.3% | +1.3% | +6.6% | +6.2% |
| Jun 3, 2026 | +1.8% | -0.8% | +3.5% | +15.3% |
| May 22, 2026 | +1.8% | +1.2% | -0.4% | +13.0% |
Big drop and big gain: among RPRX's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time and 52-week closing high Sep 4, 2026 |
63.96 +7.2% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 61.11 +2.4% |
| Now | 59.65 |
| 50-day average | 59.18 -0.8% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
58.99 -1.1% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 56.95 -4.5% |
| 200-day average | 51.63 -13.4% |
| 52-week closing low Oct 14, 2025 |
35.32 -40.8% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 6 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.