RSG
Reddit attention is surging
- RSG +2.50% on the last session vs SPY +0.06%: +2.4 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, rsi overbought (RSI 73 today so far, above 70): After its 17 overbought readings in the past 5 years, RSG was higher a month later 12 times out of 17; half the outcomes fell between -0.7% and +4.2%. History, not a forecast.
- 1 analyst action in the past 10 days (0 positive, 1 negative); latest: CIBC maintained Outperformer, lowered target $249 → $240.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices RSG only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
226.76 +1.0% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 26% vs usual 28% reached today |
229.66 +2.3% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 26% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 230.04 · prior close 224.44 | |
| Bargain buy side |
222.15 -1.0% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 25% vs usual 26% |
219.34 -2.3% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 221.41 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% | 227.52 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 222.15 | 3 in 10 days↓ 25% vs 26% | 226.76 | 3 in 10 days↓ 26% vs 28% |
| Eager | 222.84 | 4 in 10 days | 226.05 | 4 in 10 days↓ 42% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 217.71 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 231.38 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 15% vs 19% |
| Balanced | 219.34 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 229.66 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 26% vs 30% |
| Eager | 220.87 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 40% vs 43% | 228.06 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 44% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From RSG's daily swings (about 1.1% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 26% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next session: reached 25% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 26% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 10 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2, 2026 | +1.6% | +3.5% | — | — |
| Sep 14, 2026 | +1.4% | -5.3% | -2.3% | — |
| Aug 19, 2026 | +1.9% | +0.5% | -1.3% | — |
| Aug 7, 2026 | +2.4% | +0.1% | +3.3% | — |
| Jul 13, 2026 | +1.9% | -1.3% | -3.7% | -2.6% |
| Jul 2, 2026 | +1.5% | +0.9% | -3.6% | -4.8% |
| Jun 23, 2026 | +2.3% | +1.9% | +4.3% | +2.6% |
| Jun 4, 2026 | +1.8% | +0.1% | +7.3% | +8.6% |
Big drop and big gain: among RSG's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 272.00 +18.2% |
| All-time closing high Jun 2, 2025 |
253.70 +10.3% |
| Mean analyst target | 244.50 +6.3% |
| 52-week closing high Mar 3, 2026 |
230.19 +0.1% |
| Now | 230.04 |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 229.66 -0.2% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
224.44 -2.4% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 219.34 -4.7% |
| 50-day average | 217.35 -5.5% |
| 200-day average | 214.16 -6.9% |
| Lowest analyst target | 208.00 -9.6% |
| 52-week closing low May 11, 2026 |
196.52 -14.6% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 28 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.