RTX
Moving with the market
- RTX −0.02% on the last session vs SPY +0.00%: −0.0 pts of stock-specific move.
- Earnings Tue before the open: EPS $1.78 expected (19 analysts); it moved ±4.7% on average after its last 8 reports.
- Aftermath, big gain (Oct 8): After its 60 big gains in the past 5 years, RTX was higher a week later 43 times out of 60; half the outcomes fell between -0.7% and +2.5%. History, not a forecast.
- 2 analyst actions in the past 10 days (0 positive, 1 negative); latest: TD Cowen maintained Buy, lowered target $240 → $225.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices RTX only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
188.77 +1.2% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 26% vs usual 28% reached today |
191.65 +2.8% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 26% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 186.43 · prior close 186.47 | |
| Bargain buy side |
184.20 -1.2% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 25% vs usual 26% |
181.43 -2.7% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 183.47 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% | 189.52 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 184.20 | 3 in 10 days↓ 25% vs 26% | 188.77 | 3 in 10 days↓ 26% vs 28% |
| Eager | 184.88 | 4 in 10 days | 188.07 | 4 in 10 days↓ 42% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 179.82 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 193.37 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 15% vs 19% |
| Balanced | 181.43 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 191.65 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 26% vs 30% |
| Eager | 182.94 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 40% vs 43% | 190.07 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 44% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From RTX's daily swings (about 1.3% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 26% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next session: reached 25% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 26% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 10 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8, 2026 | +2.3% | — | — | — |
| Aug 5, 2026 | +2.0% | +0.2% | -8.8% | — |
| Jul 23, 2026 | +7.3% | +2.5% | +0.7% | — |
| Jul 2, 2026 | +3.9% | -1.7% | +8.7% | -6.8% |
| Jun 17, 2026 | +3.1% | -3.1% | +1.0% | +0.8% |
| Jun 4, 2026 | +4.0% | +2.7% | +12.0% | +13.0% |
| May 18, 2026 | +2.8% | +2.1% | +9.9% | +29.1% |
| Apr 30, 2026 | +1.9% | +0.4% | -0.5% | +22.7% |
Big drop and big gain: among RTX's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 250.00 +34.1% |
| Mean analyst target | 230.13 +23.4% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Aug 18, 2026 |
225.49 +21.0% |
| 50-day average | 200.62 +7.6% |
| Lowest analyst target | 200.00 +7.3% |
| 200-day average | 193.98 +4.1% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 191.65 +2.8% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
186.47 0.0% |
| Now | 186.43 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 181.43 -2.7% |
| 52-week closing low Oct 15, 2025 |
154.70 -17.0% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 64 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.