RUN
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- RUN +4.46% on the last session vs SPY +0.09%: +4.4 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
- Activity: volume on pace for 2.0× its 20-day average.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices RUN only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
7.53 +3.3% ↑ more often after a new 52-week low
reached 4 in 10 days · 36% vs usual 28% reached today |
7.84 +7.5% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 7.62 · prior close 7.30 | |
| Bargain buy side |
7.06 -3.2% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 2 in 10 days · 24% vs usual 26% |
6.79 -7.0% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 6.99 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% | 7.61 | 3 in 10 days↑ 25% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 7.06 | 2 in 10 days↓ 24% vs 26% | 7.53 | 4 in 10 days↑ 36% vs 28% |
| Eager | 7.13 | 4 in 10 days↓ 40% vs 41% | 7.46 | 5 in 10 days↑ 52% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 6.63 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 8.03 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 6.79 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 7.84 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 6.94 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 41% vs 43% | 7.67 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From RUN's daily swings (about 3.3% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 24, 2026 | -6.8% | -1.8% | — | — |
| Aug 18, 2026 | -5.8% | -0.8% | -5.8% | — |
| Aug 6, 2026 | -10.6% | +5.1% | -5.2% | — |
| Jul 7, 2026 | -5.9% | +4.8% | -14.0% | -37.6% |
| Jun 23, 2026 | -5.9% | +4.4% | -19.0% | -31.4% |
| Jun 9, 2026 | -6.4% | +0.3% | -1.0% | -30.2% |
| Jun 1, 2026 | -6.8% | -13.6% | -15.9% | -45.0% |
| Apr 29, 2026 | -8.0% | +7.5% | +40.2% | -20.2% |
- Stretch price, next session: reached 36% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 24, 2026 | -6.8% | -1.8% | — | — |
| Aug 18, 2026 | -5.8% | -0.8% | -5.8% | — |
| Mar 27, 2025 | -3.2% | +9.7% | +24.8% | +23.6% |
| Feb 10, 2025 | -1.3% | +6.0% | -21.4% | +31.1% |
| Dec 18, 2024 | -9.0% | +10.1% | -7.5% | -30.3% |
| Oct 24, 2023 | -2.1% | -0.2% | +18.0% | +48.2% |
| Sep 21, 2023 | -5.2% | -9.0% | -27.1% | +34.1% |
| Aug 18, 2023 | -3.1% | -2.1% | +1.3% | -21.3% |
- Bargain price, next session: reached 24% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 10 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among RUN's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Jan 8, 2021 |
96.50 +1166.4% |
| 52-week closing high Jan 28, 2026 |
21.41 +181.0% |
| 200-day average | 13.03 +71.0% |
| 50-day average | 8.64 +13.4% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 7.84 +2.9% |
| Now | 7.62 |
| 52-week closing low Oct 14, 2026 |
7.30 -4.3% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
7.30 -4.3% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 6.79 -10.9% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 11 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.