RVI
Moving with the market
- RVI +0.34% on the last session vs SPY +0.02%: +0.3 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
- Activity: volume on pace for 3.4× its 20-day average.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices RVI only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
25.66 +2.2% reached 3 in 10 days |
26.36 +5.0% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 25.18 · prior close 25.10 | |
| Bargain buy side |
24.55 -2.2% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
23.90 -4.8% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 24.38 | 2 in 10 days | 25.84 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 24.55 | 3 in 10 days | 25.66 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 24.72 | 4 in 10 days | 25.49 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 23.52 | 2 in 10 weeks | 26.79 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 23.90 | 3 in 10 weeks | 26.36 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 24.25 | 4 in 10 weeks | 25.97 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From RVI's daily swings (about 2.3% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among RVI's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time and 52-week closing high May 13, 2026 |
73.71 +192.7% |
| 50-day average | 27.41 +8.8% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 26.36 +4.7% |
| Now | 25.18 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
25.10 -0.3% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 23.90 -5.1% |
| 52-week closing low Mar 6, 2026 |
21.00 -16.6% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 1 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.