RYAAY
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- RYAAY +1.40% on the last session vs SPY +0.05%: +1.4 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
- Activity: volume on pace for 2.4× its 20-day average.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices RYAAY only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
52.25 +1.8% ↑ more often after a new 52-week low
reached 4 in 10 days · 36% vs usual 28% reached today |
53.41 +4.1% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 52.05 · prior close 51.33 | |
| Bargain buy side |
50.42 -1.8% reached 3 in 10 days |
49.33 -3.9% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 50.13 | 2 in 10 days | 52.56 | 3 in 10 days↑ 25% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 50.42 | 3 in 10 days | 52.25 | 4 in 10 days↑ 36% vs 28% |
| Eager | 50.70 | 4 in 10 days | 51.97 | 5 in 10 days↑ 52% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 48.69 | 2 in 10 weeks | 54.11 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 49.33 | 3 in 10 weeks | 53.41 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 49.92 | 4 in 10 weeks | 52.77 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From RYAAY's daily swings (about 1.8% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8, 2026 | -3.5% | — | — | — |
| Sep 1, 2026 | -2.8% | +0.8% | +1.5% | — |
| Aug 17, 2026 | -2.5% | -1.3% | -7.4% | — |
| Jul 29, 2026 | -3.2% | +5.8% | -4.2% | — |
| Jul 17, 2026 | -5.7% | -9.1% | -8.4% | — |
| Jun 3, 2026 | -2.7% | -2.4% | +17.3% | -4.8% |
| May 19, 2026 | -3.4% | +12.8% | +13.1% | +1.2% |
| May 11, 2026 | -2.5% | -0.9% | -1.5% | +4.9% |
- Stretch price, next session: reached 36% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 10, 2026 | -2.3% | +1.8% | +3.2% | — |
| Sep 21, 2022 | -3.0% | -8.7% | -5.3% | +18.1% |
| Jun 13, 2022 | -8.3% | +1.5% | -3.6% | +3.3% |
| Mar 1, 2022 | -10.8% | -12.9% | -5.5% | -2.0% |
Big drop and big gain: among RYAAY's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time and 52-week closing high Jan 5, 2026 |
72.72 +39.7% |
| 200-day average | 60.20 +15.7% |
| 50-day average | 55.04 +5.7% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 53.41 +2.6% |
| Now | 52.05 |
| 52-week closing low Oct 14, 2026 |
51.33 -1.4% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
51.33 -1.4% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 49.33 -5.2% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 29 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.