SAM
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- SAM +1.95% on the last session vs SPY +0.10%: +1.9 pts of stock-specific move.
- Earnings Oct 22 after the close (date not confirmed): EPS $4.30 expected (4 analysts).
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices SAM only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
180.91 +1.6% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
184.40 +3.5% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 181.62 · prior close 178.14 | |
| Bargain buy side |
175.41 -1.5% reached 3 in 10 days |
172.09 -3.4% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 174.53 | 2 in 10 days | 181.83 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 175.41 | 3 in 10 days | 180.91 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 176.23 | 4 in 10 days | 180.07 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 170.17 | 2 in 10 weeks | 186.49 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 172.09 | 3 in 10 weeks | 184.40 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 173.90 | 4 in 10 weeks | 182.48 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From SAM's daily swings (about 1.6% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among SAM's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Apr 20, 2021 |
1,306.45 +619.4% |
| 52-week closing high Apr 9, 2026 |
260.05 +43.2% |
| 200-day average | 199.64 +9.9% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 184.40 +1.5% |
| Now | 181.62 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
178.14 -1.9% |
| 50-day average | 175.09 -3.6% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 172.09 -5.2% |
| 52-week closing low Jun 4, 2026 |
161.08 -11.3% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 31 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.