SANM
Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- SANM −8.08% on the last session vs SPY −0.00%: −8.1 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
- Activity: volume on pace for 1.6× its 20-day average.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices SANM only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
201.67 +3.8% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
211.15 +8.7% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 178.62 · prior close 194.32 | |
| Bargain buy side |
187.24 -3.6% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
178.84 -8.0% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 184.99 | 2 in 10 days | 204.12 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 187.24 | 3 in 10 days | 201.67 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 189.35 | 4 in 10 days | 199.42 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 174.08 | 2 in 10 weeks | 216.92 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 178.84 | 3 in 10 weeks | 211.15 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 183.39 | 4 in 10 weeks | 205.90 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From SANM's daily swings (about 3.8% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8, 2026 | -4.1% | — | — | — |
| Sep 30, 2026 | -3.5% | +2.1% | — | — |
| Sep 14, 2026 | -9.2% | +6.9% | +8.0% | — |
| Aug 28, 2026 | -4.6% | +2.3% | +14.8% | — |
| Aug 18, 2026 | -8.6% | -3.6% | -1.1% | — |
| Aug 5, 2026 | -4.0% | +4.9% | -1.7% | — |
| Jul 24, 2026 | -4.6% | -11.0% | -11.0% | — |
| Jul 16, 2026 | -4.5% | +10.4% | +6.5% | -1.9% |
Big drop and big gain: among SANM's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Aug 31, 2000 |
354.00 +98.2% |
| 52-week closing high Jun 3, 2026 |
282.72 +58.3% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 211.15 +18.2% |
| 50-day average | 205.52 +15.1% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
194.32 +8.8% |
| 200-day average | 191.19 +7.0% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 178.84 +0.1% |
| Now | 178.62 |
| 52-week closing low Mar 20, 2026 |
122.86 -31.2% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 33 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.