SBAC
Moving with the market
- SBAC +0.39% on the last session vs SPY +0.09%: +0.3 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices SBAC only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
184.81 +2.3% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
190.01 +5.1% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 181.41 · prior close 180.71 | |
| Bargain buy side |
176.70 -2.2% reached 3 in 10 days |
171.87 -4.9% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 175.42 | 2 in 10 days | 186.16 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 176.70 | 3 in 10 days | 184.81 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 177.91 | 4 in 10 days | 183.56 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 169.09 | 2 in 10 weeks | 193.13 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 171.87 | 3 in 10 weeks | 190.01 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 174.50 | 4 in 10 weeks | 187.14 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From SBAC's daily swings (about 2.3% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among SBAC's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Dec 31, 2021 |
358.34 +97.5% |
| Highest analyst target | 280.00 +54.3% |
| Mean analyst target | 226.20 +24.7% |
| 52-week closing high Apr 10, 2026 |
220.88 +21.8% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 190.01 +4.7% |
| 200-day average | 188.60 +4.0% |
| Now | 181.41 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
180.71 -0.4% |
| 50-day average | 179.04 -1.3% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 171.87 -5.3% |
| Lowest analyst target | 167.00 -7.9% |
| 52-week closing low Oct 1, 2026 |
158.02 -12.9% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 27 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.