SBLK
Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- SBLK −2.57% on the last session vs SPY +0.12%: −2.7 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices SBLK only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
29.36 +2.0% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
30.10 +4.6% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 28.03 · prior close 28.77 | |
| Bargain buy side |
28.19 -2.0% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
27.50 -4.4% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 28.01 | 2 in 10 days | 29.55 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 28.19 | 3 in 10 days | 29.36 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 28.37 | 4 in 10 days | 29.18 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 27.10 | 2 in 10 weeks | 30.55 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 27.50 | 3 in 10 weeks | 30.10 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 27.88 | 4 in 10 weeks | 29.69 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From SBLK's daily swings (about 2.1% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 6, 2026 | -3.2% | -0.2% | — | — |
| Sep 22, 2026 | -2.5% | -5.6% | — | — |
| Sep 8, 2026 | -4.3% | +0.6% | -4.3% | — |
| Aug 26, 2026 | -4.9% | +7.6% | -0.1% | — |
| Aug 11, 2026 | -2.6% | +8.9% | +14.5% | — |
| Jul 27, 2026 | -3.7% | +6.0% | +18.3% | — |
| Jul 17, 2026 | -4.3% | +13.0% | +20.8% | — |
| Jun 18, 2026 | -3.5% | -5.5% | +3.4% | +29.7% |
Big drop and big gain: among SBLK's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Dec 4, 2007 |
388.19 +1284.9% |
| 52-week closing high Sep 18, 2026 |
32.48 +15.9% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 30.10 +7.4% |
| 50-day average | 30.01 +7.1% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
28.77 +2.6% |
| Now | 28.03 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 27.50 -1.9% |
| 200-day average | 25.14 -10.3% |
| 52-week closing low Oct 14, 2025 |
16.14 -42.4% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 19 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.