SBSW
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- SBSW +3.98% on the last session vs SPY +0.13%: +3.9 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices SBSW only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
9.70 +3.0% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% reached today |
10.07 +6.9% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 9.80 · prior close 9.42 | |
| Bargain buy side |
9.14 -2.9% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 2 in 10 days · 24% vs usual 26% |
8.81 -6.4% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 9.06 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% | 9.80 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 9.14 | 2 in 10 days↓ 24% vs 26% | 9.70 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 9.23 | 4 in 10 days↓ 40% vs 41% | 9.62 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 8.63 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 10.29 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 8.81 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 10.07 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 8.99 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 41% vs 43% | 9.87 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From SBSW's daily swings (about 3.1% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 23, 2026 | -7.5% | -3.2% | — | — |
| Sep 14, 2026 | -5.0% | -2.5% | -13.2% | — |
| Jul 7, 2026 | -4.9% | +0.6% | +16.4% | +22.7% |
| Jun 17, 2026 | -5.7% | -13.3% | -21.2% | +18.7% |
| Jun 3, 2026 | -6.2% | -18.2% | -19.3% | +13.2% |
| May 15, 2026 | -7.9% | -5.6% | -11.2% | -9.5% |
| Apr 21, 2026 | -5.3% | -6.5% | -7.2% | -31.3% |
| Mar 13, 2026 | -7.8% | -7.8% | +9.8% | -19.3% |
- Bargain price, next session: reached 24% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 10 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among SBSW's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time and 52-week closing high Jan 28, 2026 |
19.67 +100.9% |
| 200-day average | 11.79 +20.4% |
| 50-day average | 10.87 +11.0% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 10.07 +2.8% |
| Now | 9.80 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
9.42 -3.8% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 8.81 -10.0% |
| 52-week closing low Jul 17, 2026 |
7.67 -21.7% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 14 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.