SBUX
Moving with its group (XLY +1.5%)
- SBUX +2.84% on the last session vs SPY +0.09%: +2.7 pts of stock-specific move.
- The consumer discretionary ETF (XLY) +1.5% (+1.4 pts vs SPY): the stock moved with its group.
- Aftermath, big gain (+2.8% today so far, past its big-gain line of +2.0%): After its 59 big gains in the past 5 years, SBUX was higher a week later 36 times out of 59; half the outcomes fell between -1.6% and +2.4%. History, not a forecast.
- 2 analyst actions in the past 10 days (0 positive, 1 negative); latest: UBS maintained Neutral, lowered target $112 → $105.
- 1 insider or congressional trade in the past 30 days.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices SBUX only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
94.50 +1.3% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
96.06 +3.0% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 95.89 · prior close 93.25 | |
| Bargain buy side |
92.02 -1.3% reached 3 in 10 days |
90.52 -2.9% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 91.62 | 2 in 10 days | 94.91 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 92.02 | 3 in 10 days | 94.50 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 92.39 | 4 in 10 days | 94.12 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 89.65 | 2 in 10 weeks | 97.00 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 90.52 | 3 in 10 weeks | 96.06 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 91.34 | 4 in 10 weeks | 95.20 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From SBUX's daily swings (about 1.4% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among SBUX's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 143.00 +49.1% |
| All-time closing high Jul 26, 2021 |
111.54 +16.3% |
| Mean analyst target | 111.33 +16.1% |
| 52-week closing high Aug 26, 2026 |
108.49 +13.1% |
| 50-day average | 100.27 +4.6% |
| 200-day average | 98.30 +2.5% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 96.06 +0.2% |
| Now | 95.89 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
93.25 -2.8% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 90.52 -5.6% |
| Lowest analyst target | 82.00 -14.5% |
| 52-week closing low Nov 4, 2025 |
77.62 -19.1% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 34 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.