SCHW
Reddit attention is surging
- SCHW −2.53% on the last session vs SPY +0.02%: −2.5 pts of stock-specific move.
- Earnings today before the open: EPS $1.66 expected (20 analysts); it moved ±2.7% on average after its last 8 reports.
- Against the group: its brokers & fintech peers +0.9% (+0.9 pts vs SPY).
- Aftermath, big drop (-2.5% today so far, past its big-drop line of -1.6%): After its 52 big drops in the past 5 years, SCHW was higher a day later 32 times out of 52; half the outcomes fell between -0.5% and +1.5%. History, not a forecast.
- 4 Reddit mentions in the past 24 hours, 100% positive over the week · today's pace is 5.0× its recent daily average.
- 7 analyst actions in the past 10 days (3 positive, 3 negative); latest: Truist Securities maintained Buy, lowered target $130 → $125.
- 1 insider or congressional trade in the past 30 days.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
- Activity: volume on pace for 2.2× its 20-day average.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices SCHW only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
98.18 +1.4% reached 3 in 10 days |
99.90 +3.2% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 94.35 · prior close 96.80 | |
| Bargain buy side |
95.44 -1.4% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
93.79 -3.1% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 95.01 | 2 in 10 days | 98.63 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 95.44 | 3 in 10 days | 98.18 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 95.85 | 4 in 10 days | 97.76 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 92.84 | 2 in 10 weeks | 100.93 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 93.79 | 3 in 10 weeks | 99.90 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 94.69 | 4 in 10 weeks | 98.95 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From SCHW's daily swings (about 1.5% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among SCHW's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 150.00 +59.0% |
| Mean analyst target | 122.32 +29.6% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Aug 24, 2026 |
113.65 +20.5% |
| 50-day average | 104.72 +11.0% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 99.90 +5.9% |
| 200-day average | 97.77 +3.6% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
96.80 +2.6% |
| Lowest analyst target | 95.00 +0.7% |
| Now | 94.35 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 93.79 -0.6% |
| 52-week closing low May 28, 2026 |
85.10 -9.8% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 39 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.