SEI
Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- SEI −9.41% on the last session vs SPY +0.09%: −9.5 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
- Activity: volume on pace for 1.8× its 20-day average.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices SEI only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
72.94 +5.1% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
77.61 +11.9% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 62.84 · prior close 69.37 | |
| Bargain buy side |
65.97 -4.9% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
62.01 -10.6% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 64.91 | 2 in 10 days | 74.14 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 65.97 | 3 in 10 days | 72.94 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 66.98 | 4 in 10 days | 71.84 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 59.79 | 2 in 10 weeks | 80.49 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 62.01 | 3 in 10 weeks | 77.61 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 64.15 | 4 in 10 weeks | 75.02 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From SEI's daily swings (about 5.2% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 14, 2026 | -9.4% | +13.3% | +27.6% | — |
| Aug 28, 2026 | -5.6% | +10.2% | +37.3% | — |
| Aug 18, 2026 | -6.1% | -14.6% | +12.0% | — |
| Jul 24, 2026 | -10.5% | -4.8% | -0.9% | — |
| Jul 13, 2026 | -6.2% | -9.8% | -12.4% | +14.0% |
| Jul 1, 2026 | -8.7% | -7.0% | -30.0% | -2.9% |
| Jun 23, 2026 | -5.1% | +3.2% | -22.5% | -15.6% |
| Jun 5, 2026 | -9.1% | +6.7% | -4.5% | -20.7% |
Big drop and big gain: among SEI's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time and 52-week closing high Jun 18, 2026 |
82.72 +31.6% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 77.61 +23.5% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
69.37 +10.4% |
| 50-day average | 63.76 +1.5% |
| Now | 62.84 |
| 200-day average | 62.50 -0.5% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 62.01 -1.3% |
| 52-week closing low Dec 17, 2025 |
40.39 -35.7% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 9 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.