SERV
Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- SERV −1.74% on the last session vs SPY +0.02%: −1.8 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices SERV only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
3.60 +4.6% ↑ more often after a new 52-week low
reached 4 in 10 days · 36% vs usual 28% |
3.81 +10.7% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 3.38 · prior close 3.44 | |
| Bargain buy side |
3.29 -4.4% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 2 in 10 days · 24% vs usual 26% reached today |
3.11 -9.6% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 3.24 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% | 3.65 | 3 in 10 days↑ 25% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 3.29 | 2 in 10 days↓ 24% vs 26% | 3.60 | 4 in 10 days↑ 36% vs 28% |
| Eager | 3.33 | 4 in 10 days↓ 40% vs 41% | 3.55 | 5 in 10 days↑ 52% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 3.01 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 3.93 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 3.11 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 3.81 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 3.21 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 41% vs 43% | 3.69 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From SERV's daily swings (about 4.7% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 12, 2026 | -10.0% | — | — | — |
| Aug 7, 2026 | -10.5% | -1.9% | -3.6% | — |
| Jul 16, 2026 | -8.3% | -4.4% | -5.3% | -34.7% |
| Jun 16, 2026 | -9.1% | -6.7% | -22.4% | -34.6% |
| Jun 3, 2026 | -9.2% | -15.3% | -21.7% | -40.9% |
| Mar 27, 2026 | -8.4% | +0.4% | +13.3% | -23.7% |
| Mar 12, 2026 | -9.8% | -4.9% | -11.6% | -22.5% |
| Feb 5, 2026 | -9.5% | +1.3% | +3.3% | -1.1% |
- Stretch price, next session: reached 36% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 15, 2026 | -2.3% | +5.1% | -20.6% | — |
| Jul 13, 2026 | -2.2% | -10.4% | -15.4% | -24.9% |
| Jun 8, 2026 | -1.8% | -5.1% | -20.6% | -35.6% |
- Bargain price, next session: reached 24% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 10 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among SERV's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Mar 8, 2024 |
23.80 +604.1% |
| 52-week closing high Oct 15, 2025 |
17.51 +418.0% |
| 200-day average | 7.83 +131.6% |
| 50-day average | 4.62 +36.6% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 3.81 +12.6% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
3.44 +1.8% |
| Now | 3.38 |
| 52-week closing low Oct 15, 2026 |
3.38 0.0% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 3.11 -8.0% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 3 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.