SFNC
Falling on an earnings miss
- SFNC −1.57% on the last session vs SPY −0.70%: −0.9 pts of stock-specific move.
- Reported results Oct 15 after the close: EPS $0.46 vs $0.54 expected (miss, −$0.08, −14.8%).
- Market backdrop (Thu): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices SFNC only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
22.49 +1.0% reached 3 in 10 days |
22.77 +2.3% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 21.91 · prior close 22.26 | |
| Bargain buy side |
22.04 -1.0% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
21.76 -2.2% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 21.96 | 2 in 10 days | 22.56 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 22.04 | 3 in 10 days | 22.49 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 22.10 | 4 in 10 days | 22.42 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 21.61 | 2 in 10 weeks | 22.93 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 21.76 | 3 in 10 weeks | 22.77 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 21.91 | 4 in 10 weeks | 22.61 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From SFNC's daily swings (about 1.0% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 15 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 15 close
Big drop and big gain: among SFNC's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Nov 11, 2021 |
26.64 +21.6% |
| 52-week closing high Aug 4, 2026 |
23.90 +9.1% |
| 50-day average | 22.80 +4.0% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 22.77 +3.9% |
| Previous close Oct 15, 2026 |
22.26 +1.6% |
| Now | 21.91 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 21.76 -0.7% |
| 200-day average | 21.19 -3.3% |
| 52-week closing low Oct 29, 2025 |
16.56 -24.4% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 42 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.