SGOV
Moving with the market
- SGOV +0.03% on the last session vs SPY +0.74%: −0.7 pts of stock-specific move.
- 22 Reddit mentions in the past 24 hours, 77% positive over the week · today's pace is 2.4× its recent daily average.
- Market backdrop (Fri): Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.1% vs 0.3% expected (cooler); Non-Farm Employment Change 29K vs 89K expected (weaker); S&P futures +0.41%, 10-year yield -5bp in the 30 minutes after.
What Reddit is saying
My plan is to never sell them as long as interest rates stay over 3%.Sorry - a long way to say SGOV is fine, but in general avoid the bond funds like the plague in a rising interest rate environment.From a finance perspective, they are zero risk..The only thing that changes is the Interest rate, which isn't part of the risk equation..All risk is calculated against the treasuries and SGOV is an easier way to hold for shorter terms than buying the 3mo treasuries and cash being tied up..I hold my cash in sgov instead my brokers sweep accounts that pays me .00003% a month..Then when I find a trade with potential upside, I can liquidate the sgov shares and buy new positions same day.Berkshire really doesn't follow the index closely..It's a good one if you are heavily taxed on dividends since it doesn't have one..Seems like a bad time to get into bonds unless you think we are going to get out of Iran soon and inflation is going to go away..The only bond fund I do is SGOV because it's all 3 month T bills..Buying ind
Top comments, summarized
- But SGOV ladders its bond purchases.
- So the majority of the holdings would be about to mature: only the bonds that were purchased in month 5 would have a meaningful decrease in principal.
- I.e. SGOV buys $1k of bonds every day and the last day, and interest rates spike to 10%.
- Well that last day the 1000 would be worth $990 (4% interests rate purchase) down to $975 ($60 loss due to 6% increase) that's what the new bonds would be sold at the new rates (10%=$100 divide by 4=25).
- So you'd lose $25 but one the initial investment of 5.5 months, you would have made like $72.
- Sorry - a long way to say SGOV is fine, but in general avoid the bond funds like the plague in a rising interest rate environment.
- Since it's emergency first and growth second in the taxable account, i'd invest it right now -
- That's why I even gave "the guy" that and said there might be a small loss on paper but it would all even out if he held to 6 months and would have a profit.
- My longer thought process is, day 1 I buy a 3mo t bill for $10,000.
- Day 2, something happens where interest rates jump from 4% to 13%?!
- I was clear we are holding past 3 months, not "I may have an emergency at week 2 and need to cash out...
- However, this is why I clarified holding to 6 months to concede the 3 months has a slight chance to lose maybe 1% realistically but would all come back if continued to hold.
- But if you are looking for the worst case scenario, it's when you buy at low interest rates (< 1%) and then get a quick spike of interest rates RIGHT BEFORE selling.
- The quick spike before selling is problematic because the market would price the interest rate spike immediately into the SGOV price but you would not have the benefit of waiting X months to gain from the increased interest rate.
- The only thing that changes is the Interest rate, which isn't part of the risk equation.
- All risk is calculated against the treasuries and SGOV is an easier way to hold for shorter terms than buying the 3mo treasuries and cash being tied up.
- I hold my cash in sgov instead my brokers sweep accounts that pays me .00003% a month.
- Then when I find a trade with potential upside, I can liquidate the sgov shares and buy new positions same day.
- It's a good one if you are heavily taxed on dividends since it doesn't have one.
- Seems like a bad time to get into bonds unless you think we are going to get out of Iran soon and inflation is going to go away.
- The only bond fund I do is SGOV because it's all 3 month T bills.
- Buying individual bonds and holding to maturity is an option but inflation could eat away at it's value.
- With a longer duration (10, 20 e,g,) a bond fun can lose value since there's no concept of holding to maturity.
- But the "hold for 3 months" strategy only holds if you have actual bonds, rather than shares in a bond fund.
- But you can get stuck and if you have a bunch of margin costing you daily and you can't sell, that sucks.
- I mostly use margin intraday if day trading, I can go nice and heavy and not worry about taking money from SGOV unless that's how it goes down end of day
- Your goal at the end of the trading day is to have as little cash in your account as possible.
- It's difficult to buy those tempting shares of NVDA at 230 (which you are sure will go to 250, but then drop to 200) when your account has very little cash.
- You can't do the dumb ass Yolos that blow up accounts when you have no cash.
- Rule #1 does involve sometimes buying QQQ puts: sometimes buying puts against the QQQs to turn naked puts into spreads, or starting the trade against the QQQs as a spread, or a ratio spread.
- You spend each trading day legging in and out of put spreads in the QQQs.
- My goal at the end of the trading day is to have as little cash in my account as possible.
- What's great about keeping as little cash in my account as possible is that it makes it very hard to engage in the List of Things I Do Not Do.
- It's difficult to buy those tempting shares of NVDA at 230 (which you are sure will go to 250, but then drop to 200) when your account has 23 dollars in cash.
- Pull up a chart of the QQQs and compare it to just about any individual stock.
- Rule #1 does involve sometimes buying QQQ puts: sometimes buying puts against the QQQs to turn naked puts into spreads, or starting the trade against the QQQs as a spread, or a ratio spread.
- Acct value is $27k, you say 10% ($2,700) is in cash and that's 2 years of RMDs so your current divisor is around 20 and your annual RMD is $1,350.
- I don't think it's necessarily a bad idea to keep 2 years worth of cash, but sweep accounts are usually low interest.
- If you are not getting over 3% in the sweep account, I'd put the cash in SGOV, even though we're really talking about a smallish amount of money so it won't make a huge diff.
- Only thing I'd say is that if I'm correct about the RMD divisor currently being around 20, don't forget you have to empty the account by the end of year 10.
- Could have some tax consequences, but they probably won't be awful.
- You'll barely keep ahead of inflation, but you won't lose money.
- APLU is an intermediate term bond fund with a duration of 6.3 years.
- It holds a variety of bond types, government and corporate.
- With the duration of 6.3 years is has significant interest rate risk.
- It is in no way equivalent to a short term bond fund like SGOV.
- You're motivated to make money, but you are -- at present -- not disciplined enough to understand there are different ways to make the money.
- Contribute a little to a 529 if you plan on going back to school.
- Put a few months cost of living into I-bonds, T-bills, or treasury ETF like USFR or SGOV for a rainy day fund.
- When you have net worth in the millions, you will be the one selling covered calls for the premium, and not the one buying them with no hope of exercising.
- By then, you'll be happy with a 0.5% gain per week (25% per year) from just premium and won't even need to check daily.
- In addition to USFR I also hold VCRB, which is Vanguard's actively managed core bond fund.
- I have some EMLC (emerging market local currency) as well, but that's just a small hedge against the near term monetary policy continuing to weaken the dollar.
Day by day
| Date | Close | Change | R500 | Mentions | Positive | Upvotes | Voted sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 03 | 22 | 14 | 26 | 18.6 | |||
| Fri Oct 02 | 100.44 | +0.03% | #290 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 6.5 |
| Thu Oct 01 | 100.41 | +0.03% | #294 | 11 | 10 | 16 | 2.7 |
| Wed Sep 30 | 100.38 | 0.00% | #121 | 13 | 10 | 110 | -60.3 |
| Tue Sep 29 | 100.38 | +0.01% | #197 | 14 | 10 | 31 | 17.1 |
| Mon Sep 28 | 100.37 | +0.01% | #162 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 1.8 |
| Sun Sep 27 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | |||
| Sat Sep 26 | 8 | 3 | 9 | -0.2 | |||
| Fri Sep 25 | 100.36 | +0.04% | #326 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 1.9 |
| Thu Sep 24 | 100.32 | 0.00% | #177 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 3.1 |
| Wed Sep 23 | 100.32 | +0.01% | #171 | 16 | 11 | 19 | -0.5 |
| Tue Sep 22 | 100.31 | +0.01% | #248 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 3.7 |
| Mon Sep 21 | 100.30 | +0.01% | #291 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 2.4 |
| Sun Sep 20 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | |||
| Sat Sep 19 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0.8 | |||
| Fri Sep 18 | 100.29 | +0.03% | #155 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0.6 |
| Thu Sep 17 | 100.26 | +0.01% | #296 | 13 | 9 | 14 | 3.2 |
| Wed Sep 16 | 100.25 | +0.02% | #162 | 18 | 16 | 29 | 4.1 |
| Tue Sep 15 | 100.23 | 0.00% | #163 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.0 |
| Mon Sep 14 | 100.23 | +0.01% | #282 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.0 |
| Sun Sep 13 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 0.3 | |||
| Sat Sep 12 | 9 | 5 | 16 | -3.5 | |||
| Fri Sep 11 | 100.22 | +0.02% | #337 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 0.6 |
| Thu Sep 10 | 100.20 | +0.01% | #166 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 1.1 |
| Wed Sep 09 | 100.19 | +0.01% | #99 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0.0 |
| Tue Sep 08 | 100.18 | +0.01% | #149 | 0 | |||
| Fri Sep 04 | 100.17 | +0.04% | #174 | 0 | |||
| Thu Sep 03 | 100.13 | +0.01% | #341 | 0 | |||
| Wed Sep 02 | 100.12 | +0.01% | #298 | 0 | |||
| Tue Sep 01 | 100.11 | +0.03% | #160 | 0 |