SHAZ
Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- SHAZ −2.19% on the last session vs SPY +0.12%: −2.3 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
- Activity: volume on pace for 4.4× its 20-day average.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices SHAZ only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
33.10 +6.8% reached 3 in 10 days |
35.88 +15.8% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 30.32 · prior close 31.00 | |
| Bargain buy side |
29.04 -6.3% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
26.78 -13.6% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 28.43 | 2 in 10 days | 33.81 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 29.04 | 3 in 10 days | 33.10 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 29.62 | 4 in 10 days | 32.45 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 25.54 | 2 in 10 weeks | 37.63 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 26.78 | 3 in 10 weeks | 35.88 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 27.99 | 4 in 10 weeks | 34.33 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From SHAZ's daily swings (about 6.8% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among SHAZ's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time and 52-week closing high Jun 18, 2026 |
92.70 +205.7% |
| 50-day average | 54.50 +79.8% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 35.88 +18.4% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
31.00 +2.2% |
| Now | 30.32 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 26.78 -11.7% |
| 52-week closing low Mar 3, 2026 |
17.52 -42.2% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 1 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.