SHC
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- SHC +1.49% on the last session vs SPY +0.01%: +1.5 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices SHC only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
17.98 +1.4% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% reached today |
18.29 +3.1% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 18.00 · prior close 17.73 | |
| Bargain buy side |
17.49 -1.4% reached 3 in 10 days |
17.19 -3.0% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 17.41 | 2 in 10 days | 18.06 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 17.49 | 3 in 10 days | 17.98 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 17.56 | 4 in 10 days | 17.90 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 17.02 | 2 in 10 weeks | 18.47 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 17.19 | 3 in 10 weeks | 18.29 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 17.35 | 4 in 10 weeks | 18.12 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From SHC's daily swings (about 1.4% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 17, 2026 | -2.8% | -2.3% | +5.9% | — |
| Jul 8, 2026 | -3.1% | +3.9% | +8.2% | +4.5% |
| Jun 17, 2026 | -3.6% | +10.6% | +12.7% | +22.6% |
| May 27, 2026 | -2.6% | -1.7% | +11.8% | +25.7% |
| Mar 27, 2026 | -3.0% | +13.3% | +18.4% | +33.4% |
| Mar 5, 2026 | -4.4% | -11.6% | -1.3% | +3.4% |
| Feb 24, 2026 | -4.4% | -6.1% | -18.1% | -4.5% |
| Feb 5, 2026 | -2.5% | -2.5% | -16.3% | -9.9% |
Big drop and big gain: among SHC's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Mar 12, 2021 |
28.98 +61.0% |
| 52-week closing high Aug 21, 2026 |
19.57 +8.8% |
| 50-day average | 18.69 +3.8% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 18.29 +1.6% |
| Now | 18.00 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
17.73 -1.5% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 17.19 -4.5% |
| 200-day average | 17.02 -5.4% |
| 52-week closing low Mar 27, 2026 |
13.13 -27.0% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 6 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.