SHEL
Moving with the market
- SHEL +0.38% on the last session vs SPY +0.10%: +0.3 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices SHEL only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
104.92 +1.3% ↓ less often after a new 52-week high
reached 3 in 10 days · 25% vs usual 28% |
106.60 +2.9% ↓ less often after a new 52-week high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 27% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 103.97 · prior close 103.58 | |
| Bargain buy side |
102.26 -1.3% reached 3 in 10 days |
100.65 -2.8% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 101.83 | 2 in 10 days | 105.36 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 102.26 | 3 in 10 days | 104.92 | 3 in 10 days↓ 25% vs 28% |
| Eager | 102.66 | 4 in 10 days | 104.51 | 4 in 10 days↓ 43% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 99.71 | 2 in 10 weeks | 107.60 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 19% |
| Balanced | 100.65 | 3 in 10 weeks | 106.60 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 27% vs 30% |
| Eager | 101.53 | 4 in 10 weeks | 105.67 | 5 in 10 weeks↓ 45% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From SHEL's daily swings (about 1.3% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 25% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 10 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 27% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 9 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8, 2026 | +3.5% | — | — | — |
| Aug 19, 2026 | +0.8% | -1.8% | +1.9% | — |
| Mar 6, 2026 | +2.1% | +5.6% | +11.2% | +1.7% |
| Jan 29, 2026 | +2.2% | -3.7% | +9.7% | +18.1% |
| Nov 10, 2025 | +1.3% | -0.6% | -3.9% | +5.8% |
| Oct 6, 2025 | +1.4% | -2.9% | -0.7% | -0.9% |
| Aug 22, 2025 | +1.1% | +0.8% | -2.4% | +0.8% |
| Jul 23, 2025 | +2.3% | -1.4% | +0.6% | +0.9% |
Big drop and big gain: among SHEL's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 106.60 +2.5% |
| Now | 103.97 |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Oct 15, 2026 |
103.97 0.0% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
103.58 -0.4% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 100.65 -3.2% |
| 50-day average | 94.60 -9.0% |
| 200-day average | 85.43 -17.8% |
| 52-week closing low Jan 8, 2026 |
68.43 -34.2% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 43 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.