SHW
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- SHW +3.36% on the last session vs SPY +0.01%: +3.4 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, big gain (+3.4% today so far, past its big-gain line of +1.9%): After its 56 big gains in the past 5 years, SHW was higher a week later 32 times out of 56; half the outcomes fell between -1.5% and +3.6%. History, not a forecast.
- 2 analyst actions in the past 10 days (0 positive, 2 negative); latest: RBC Capital maintained Outperform, lowered target $420 → $392.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices SHW only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
328.83 +1.3% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
334.22 +3.0% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 335.45 · prior close 324.54 | |
| Bargain buy side |
320.30 -1.3% reached 3 in 10 days |
315.14 -2.9% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 318.94 | 2 in 10 days | 330.24 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 320.30 | 3 in 10 days | 328.83 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 321.58 | 4 in 10 days | 327.53 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 312.15 | 2 in 10 weeks | 337.42 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 315.14 | 3 in 10 weeks | 334.22 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 317.96 | 4 in 10 weeks | 331.26 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From SHW's daily swings (about 1.4% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among SHW's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 420.00 +25.2% |
| All-time closing high Nov 25, 2024 |
393.38 +17.3% |
| Mean analyst target | 384.65 +14.7% |
| 52-week closing high Feb 12, 2026 |
369.96 +10.3% |
| Lowest analyst target | 340.00 +1.4% |
| Now | 335.45 |
| 50-day average | 334.53 -0.3% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 334.22 -0.4% |
| 200-day average | 331.90 -1.1% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
324.54 -3.3% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 315.14 -6.1% |
| 52-week closing low Jun 2, 2026 |
292.32 -12.9% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 47 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.