Bargain & stretch prices
Prices SI only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Next session | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
19.68 +2.9% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
20.39 +6.6% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Last close | 19.13 | |
| Bargain buy side |
18.59 -2.8% reached 3 in 10 days |
17.95 -6.2% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Next session | ||||
| Patient | 18.42 | 2 in 10 days | 19.87 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 18.59 | 3 in 10 days | 19.68 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 18.75 | 4 in 10 days | 19.52 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 17.58 | 2 in 10 weeks | 20.82 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 17.95 | 3 in 10 weeks | 20.39 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 18.30 | 4 in 10 weeks | 20.00 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From SI's daily swings (about 3.0% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 30 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 30 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | -5.0% | -3.8% | -20.7% | — |
| Aug 7, 2026 | -8.2% | +0.7% | -2.9% | — |
Big drop and big gain: among SI's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time and 52-week closing high Jul 28, 2026 |
24.25 +26.8% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 20.39 +6.6% |
| 50-day average | 19.18 +0.3% |
| Last close Oct 30, 2026 |
19.13 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 17.95 -6.2% |
| 200-day average | 17.01 -11.1% |
| 52-week closing low Nov 10, 2025 |
11.01 -42.4% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 1 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from the last close. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.