SIG
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- SIG +5.40% on the last session vs SPY +0.01%: +5.4 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices SIG only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
111.19 +3.0% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
115.32 +6.8% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 113.79 · prior close 107.96 | |
| Bargain buy side |
104.82 -2.9% reached 3 in 10 days |
101.07 -6.4% ↑ more often while near its 52-week high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 29% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 103.82 | 2 in 10 days | 112.26 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 104.82 | 3 in 10 days | 111.19 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 105.76 | 4 in 10 days | 110.20 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 98.92 | 2 in 10 weeks↑ 20% vs 18% | 117.82 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 101.07 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 29% vs 27% | 115.32 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 103.11 | 4 in 10 weeks↑ 44% vs 43% | 113.04 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From SIG's daily swings (about 3.1% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 29% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 8 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among SIG's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Oct 30, 2015 |
122.68 +7.8% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 115.32 +1.3% |
| Now | 113.79 |
| 52-week closing high Oct 15, 2026 |
113.79 0.0% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
107.96 -5.1% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 101.07 -11.2% |
| 50-day average | 95.23 -16.3% |
| 200-day average | 90.03 -20.9% |
| 52-week closing low May 18, 2026 |
73.65 -35.3% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 38 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.