SIGI
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- SIGI +1.17% on the last session vs SPY +0.01%: +1.2 pts of stock-specific move.
- Earnings Oct 22 after the close (date not confirmed): EPS $1.82 expected (5 analysts).
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices SIGI only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
87.08 +1.0% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
88.17 +2.3% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 87.21 · prior close 86.21 | |
| Bargain buy side |
85.35 -1.0% reached 3 in 10 days |
84.29 -2.2% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 85.07 | 2 in 10 days | 87.37 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 85.35 | 3 in 10 days | 87.08 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 85.61 | 4 in 10 days | 86.82 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 83.68 | 2 in 10 weeks | 88.82 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 84.29 | 3 in 10 weeks | 88.17 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 84.87 | 4 in 10 weeks | 87.57 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From SIGI's daily swings (about 1.0% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among SIGI's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Mar 28, 2024 |
104.34 +19.6% |
| 52-week closing high Jul 2, 2026 |
99.69 +14.3% |
| 50-day average | 89.31 +2.4% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 88.17 +1.1% |
| Now | 87.21 |
| 200-day average | 86.42 -0.9% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
86.21 -1.2% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 84.29 -3.3% |
| 52-week closing low Nov 3, 2025 |
72.56 -16.8% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 47 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.