SII
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices SII only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
103.44 +2.3% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% reached today |
106.45 +5.3% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 103.05 · prior close 101.07 | |
| Bargain buy side |
98.75 -2.3% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 2 in 10 days · 24% vs usual 26% |
95.96 -5.1% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 98.01 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% | 104.23 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 98.75 | 2 in 10 days↓ 24% vs 26% | 103.44 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 99.45 | 4 in 10 days↓ 40% vs 41% | 102.72 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 94.35 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 108.26 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 95.96 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 106.45 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 97.48 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 41% vs 43% | 104.79 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From SII's daily swings (about 2.4% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 30 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 30 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | -4.3% | -2.7% | — | — |
| Oct 7, 2026 | -3.4% | -4.1% | — | — |
| Sep 23, 2026 | -4.7% | -4.8% | -15.2% | — |
| Sep 15, 2026 | -3.6% | +3.7% | -12.9% | — |
| Sep 1, 2026 | -3.6% | +2.2% | -9.0% | — |
| Aug 12, 2026 | -4.0% | +3.0% | +13.4% | — |
| Jul 31, 2026 | -3.4% | +14.4% | +28.4% | +3.9% |
| Jul 7, 2026 | -4.7% | -6.1% | +2.4% | +2.8% |
- Bargain price, next session: reached 24% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 10 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among SII's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time and 52-week closing high Mar 10, 2026 |
165.32 +60.4% |
| 200-day average | 126.19 +22.5% |
| 50-day average | 120.22 +16.7% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 106.45 +3.3% |
| Now | 103.05 |
| Previous close Oct 30, 2026 |
101.07 -1.9% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 95.96 -6.9% |
| 52-week closing low Nov 21, 2025 |
80.58 -21.8% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 17 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.