SIRI
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- SIRI +2.89% on the last session vs SPY +0.10%: +2.8 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices SIRI only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
26.92 +1.6% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
27.44 +3.5% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 27.27 · prior close 26.51 | |
| Bargain buy side |
26.10 -1.5% reached 3 in 10 days |
25.61 -3.4% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 25.97 | 2 in 10 days | 27.06 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 26.10 | 3 in 10 days | 26.92 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 26.23 | 4 in 10 days | 26.80 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 25.32 | 2 in 10 weeks | 27.75 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 25.61 | 3 in 10 weeks | 27.44 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 25.88 | 4 in 10 weeks | 27.16 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From SIRI's daily swings (about 1.6% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among SIRI's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Feb 17, 2000 |
518.33 +1800.4% |
| 52-week closing high Jul 29, 2026 |
32.30 +18.4% |
| 50-day average | 27.80 +1.9% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 27.44 +0.6% |
| Now | 27.27 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
26.51 -2.8% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 25.61 -6.1% |
| 200-day average | 25.55 -6.3% |
| 52-week closing low Nov 20, 2025 |
19.30 -29.3% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 32 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.