SITM
Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- SITM −8.06% on the last session vs SPY +0.10%: −8.2 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
- Activity: volume on pace for 2.3× its 20-day average.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices SITM only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
551.65 +5.1% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
586.56 +11.7% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 482.64 · prior close 524.93 | |
| Bargain buy side |
499.51 -4.8% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 2 in 10 days · 24% vs usual 26% reached today |
469.78 -10.5% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 491.52 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% | 560.61 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 499.51 | 2 in 10 days↓ 24% vs 26% | 551.65 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 507.07 | 4 in 10 days↓ 40% vs 41% | 543.42 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 453.14 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 608.09 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 469.78 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 586.56 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 485.84 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 41% vs 43% | 567.17 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From SITM's daily swings (about 5.1% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 7, 2026 | -6.5% | -21.1% | — | — |
| Sep 14, 2026 | -12.2% | +14.3% | +3.8% | — |
| Aug 28, 2026 | -7.0% | +9.7% | +16.8% | — |
| Aug 18, 2026 | -9.3% | -12.6% | -12.0% | — |
| Aug 5, 2026 | -6.9% | +25.3% | +5.8% | — |
| Jul 27, 2026 | -5.7% | +5.3% | +13.7% | — |
| Jul 16, 2026 | -7.8% | +2.1% | +26.1% | -7.0% |
| Jul 1, 2026 | -5.6% | -7.9% | -24.0% | -7.4% |
- Bargain price, next session: reached 24% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 10 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among SITM's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time and 52-week closing high May 11, 2026 |
901.48 +86.8% |
| 50-day average | 624.97 +29.5% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 586.56 +21.5% |
| 200-day average | 539.73 +11.8% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
524.93 +8.8% |
| Now | 482.64 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 469.78 -2.7% |
| 52-week closing low Nov 20, 2025 |
252.76 -47.6% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 7 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.