SJM
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- SJM +3.12% on the last session vs SPY +0.02%: +3.1 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, big gain (+3.1% today so far, past its big-gain line of +2.0%): After its 66 big gains in the past 5 years, SJM was higher a week later 37 times out of 66; half the outcomes fell between -1.4% and +2.7%. History, not a forecast.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices SJM only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
123.46 +1.3% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
125.49 +3.0% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 125.64 · prior close 121.84 | |
| Bargain buy side |
120.24 -1.3% reached 3 in 10 days |
118.30 -2.9% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 119.73 | 2 in 10 days | 123.99 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 120.24 | 3 in 10 days | 123.46 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 120.72 | 4 in 10 days | 122.97 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 117.17 | 2 in 10 weeks | 126.70 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 118.30 | 3 in 10 weeks | 125.49 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 119.36 | 4 in 10 weeks | 124.37 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From SJM's daily swings (about 1.4% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among SJM's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 157.00 +25.0% |
| Mean analyst target | 142.12 +13.1% |
| All-time closing high Jan 6, 2023 |
141.75 +12.8% |
| 52-week closing high Aug 28, 2026 |
132.34 +5.3% |
| Now | 125.64 |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 125.49 -0.1% |
| 50-day average | 122.20 -2.7% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
121.84 -3.0% |
| Lowest analyst target | 120.00 -4.5% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 118.30 -5.8% |
| 200-day average | 108.10 -14.0% |
| 52-week closing low Apr 13, 2026 |
87.73 -30.2% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 32 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.