SKE
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- SKE +4.59% on the last session vs SPY +0.04%: +4.5 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices SKE only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
30.91 +3.2% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% reached today |
32.12 +7.2% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 31.34 · prior close 29.97 | |
| Bargain buy side |
29.05 -3.1% reached 3 in 10 days |
27.96 -6.7% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 28.76 | 2 in 10 days | 31.23 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 29.05 | 3 in 10 days | 30.91 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 29.33 | 4 in 10 days | 30.63 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 27.34 | 2 in 10 weeks | 32.85 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 27.96 | 3 in 10 weeks | 32.12 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 28.56 | 4 in 10 weeks | 31.45 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From SKE's daily swings (about 3.2% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 23, 2026 | -5.2% | -5.7% | — | — |
| Sep 10, 2026 | -5.2% | +0.1% | +4.3% | — |
| Aug 28, 2026 | -5.4% | -0.5% | -9.2% | — |
| Jul 16, 2026 | -8.1% | +6.3% | +30.6% | +18.4% |
| Jul 7, 2026 | -4.3% | 0.0% | +13.5% | +12.2% |
| Jun 18, 2026 | -4.3% | -6.3% | -6.2% | +11.9% |
| Jun 3, 2026 | -5.9% | -14.5% | -3.3% | +9.0% |
| May 15, 2026 | -9.0% | -8.7% | -0.5% | +3.7% |
Big drop and big gain: among SKE's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Oct 2, 2006 |
182.00 +480.6% |
| 52-week closing high Feb 27, 2026 |
38.12 +21.6% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 32.12 +2.5% |
| 50-day average | 32.06 +2.3% |
| Now | 31.34 |
| 200-day average | 30.31 -3.3% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
29.97 -4.4% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 27.96 -10.8% |
| 52-week closing low Nov 4, 2025 |
15.54 -50.4% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 25 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.