SKYD
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- SKYD +3.26% on the last session vs SPY +0.05%: +3.2 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, big gain (+3.3% today so far, past its big-gain line of +2.6%): After its 66 big gains in the past 5 years, SKYD was higher a week later 28 times out of 66; half the outcomes fell between -6.0% and +3.3%. History, not a forecast.
- 1 analyst action in the past 10 days (0 positive, 1 negative); latest: Barclays maintained Underweight, lowered target $8.00 → $7.00.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices SKYD only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
7.59 +7.5% ↑ more often after a new 52-week low
reached 4 in 10 days · 36% vs usual 28% |
8.30 +17.5% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 7.29 · prior close 7.06 | |
| Bargain buy side |
6.57 -7.0% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 2 in 10 days · 24% vs usual 26% |
6.01 -14.9% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 6.42 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% | 7.77 | 3 in 10 days↑ 25% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 6.57 | 2 in 10 days↓ 24% vs 26% | 7.59 | 4 in 10 days↑ 36% vs 28% |
| Eager | 6.71 | 4 in 10 days↓ 40% vs 41% | 7.42 | 5 in 10 days↑ 52% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 5.70 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 8.74 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 6.01 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 8.30 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 6.31 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 41% vs 43% | 7.90 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From SKYD's daily swings (about 7.5% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1, 2026 | -9.6% | -0.6% | — | — |
| Sep 17, 2026 | -4.7% | -4.1% | — | — |
| Sep 1, 2026 | -3.3% | -3.1% | -11.1% | — |
| Jul 17, 2026 | -4.3% | -6.2% | +17.5% | — |
| Jul 9, 2026 | -4.3% | -2.0% | -1.5% | -4.3% |
| Jun 17, 2026 | -3.1% | -5.5% | -14.1% | +6.9% |
| Jun 3, 2026 | -3.1% | -1.3% | -3.0% | +5.5% |
| May 14, 2026 | -3.4% | +1.7% | +4.3% | +0.8% |
- Stretch price, next session: reached 36% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 20, 2026 | -2.1% | -6.3% | +21.7% | — |
| Mar 11, 2026 | -3.8% | -9.0% | +7.4% | +4.3% |
| Jun 17, 2024 | -2.9% | +2.8% | +18.3% | +6.7% |
| Mar 4, 2024 | -5.9% | +12.8% | +31.8% | +24.8% |
| Oct 4, 2023 | -1.3% | +2.6% | +0.8% | +22.9% |
| Sep 1, 2023 | -9.5% | -0.7% | -11.8% | +16.0% |
| May 12, 2023 | -2.3% | +1.0% | +10.7% | -0.3% |
| Nov 9, 2022 | -6.3% | +16.8% | +22.5% | +40.7% |
- Bargain price, next session: reached 24% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 10 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among SKYD's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Mar 22, 2021 |
88.17 +1109.5% |
| 52-week closing high Oct 15, 2025 |
17.11 +134.7% |
| Highest analyst target | 16.00 +119.5% |
| 200-day average | 10.26 +40.8% |
| 50-day average | 10.00 +37.1% |
| Mean analyst target | 9.73 +33.5% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 8.30 +13.8% |
| Now | 7.29 |
| 52-week closing low Oct 14, 2026 |
7.06 -3.2% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
7.06 -3.2% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 6.01 -17.6% |
| Lowest analyst target | 2.00 -72.6% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 21 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.