SMCI
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- SMCI +4.22% on the last session vs SPY +0.74%: +3.5 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Fri): Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.1% vs 0.3% expected (cooler); Non-Farm Employment Change 29K vs 89K expected (weaker); S&P futures +0.41%, 10-year yield -5bp in the 30 minutes after.
After each kind of event
| Event | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any day | 1,255 | +0.1%#253 H | +0.6%#131 H | +3.2%#140 H | +9.1%#59 M |
| Big drop (-5.8% or worse) | 71 | +0.5%#203 H | +0.1%#265 H | +4.0%#164 H | +10.4%#60 M |
| Big gain (+7.7% or better) | 80 | -0.2%#305 H | -2.1%#330 H | +4.3%#155 H | +8.5%#129 M |
| Earnings beat | 15 | +0.8%#223 M | -2.7%#280 M | +6.3%#31 M | +4.3%#207 M |
| Earnings miss | 4 | +0.8%#110 L | -0.6%#150 L | -15.5%#174 L | -8.4%#143 L |
| 52-week high | 8 | +2.0%#85 M | +1.5%#182 M | +5.0%#202 M | +40.1%#174 L |
| 52-week low | 2 | +8.7%– | -1.7%– | +66.0%– | +80.3%– |
| Crossed above 200-day avg | 5 | +2.9%#111 L | -2.7%#263 L | -7.6%#279 L | -8.3%#373 L |
| Crossed below 200-day avg | 5 | -2.5%#275 L | -9.8%#304 L | -17.5%#317 L | -18.2%#361 L |
| RSI oversold | 7 | -1.6%#291 L | -4.3%#372 L | -1.3%#261 L | -19.4%#388 L |
| RSI overbought | 17 | -1.5%#405 M | -3.0%#274 M | -0.3%#259 M | +4.3%#170 M |
| Mention spike (Trendy) | 48 | -1.0%#86 H | -3.5%#87 H | 0.0%#56 H | -4.8%#75 M |
| Analyst upgrade | — | — | — | — | — |
| Analyst downgrade | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider buy | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider unplanned sale | — | — | — | — | — |
Median gain from the close of the session the event was known, over each holding period; #rank among the S&P 500 stocks after the same kind of event (#1 = best). "Big" is SMCI's own: its worst / best 10% of days over the prior 2 years. Highlighted: happening in the latest session.
Mention spike (Trendy)
Daily mentions at least 3x the prior week's average (20 or more); entry the next session.
| Holding | Events | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Rank | Up | vs SPY | Range of outcomes (worst · 25–75% · median · best) | vs S&P 500 stocks (their medians) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 48 | -0.96% (-1.8 to -0.6) | High | #86 of 92 | 40% | -1.11% |
-16%
+19%
|
|
| 1 week | 48 | -3.48% (-6.3 to -1.5) | High | #87 of 92 | 38% | -3.95% |
-24%
+65%
|
|
| 1 month | 48 ≈29 indep. | +0.01% (-5.8 to +9.0) | High | #56 of 91 | 50% | -3.20% |
-50%
+86%
|
|
| 1 quarter | 46 ≈12 indep. | -4.76% (-18.1 to +1.1) | Medium | #75 of 87 | 43% | -10.31% |
-70%
+235%
|
Range of outcomes: all of SMCI's mention spikes in the past 5 years, from the worst to the best result over each holding period; the box holds the middle half, the tick is the median. A wide box means the median alone says little. Hover the median for the average.
Mention spike (Trendy) by trend
| When it happened | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long trendAbove its 200-day avg now | 25 | -0.9%H vs +0.3% | -1.5%H vs +1.4% | -1.0%M vs +4.7% | -13.0%M vs +10.3% |
| Below its 200-day avg | 23 | -2.0%H vs -0.5% | -6.5%H vs -0.1% | +9.0%M vs -0.4% | +2.5%L vs +1.9% |
| Medium trendAbove its 50-day avg now | 27 | -1.3%H vs 0.0% | -2.9%H vs +0.3% | -5.8%M vs -2.1% | -2.0%M vs +10.2% |
| Below its 50-day avg | 21 | -0.6%H vs +0.1% | -4.1%H vs +1.7% | +5.5%M vs +6.8% | -18.1%M vs +6.5% |
| Short trendAbove its 20-day avg now | 29 | -0.6%H vs 0.0% | -2.9%H vs +0.2% | -1.0%M vs +1.1% | -5.1%M vs +6.2% |
| Below its 20-day avg | 19 | -1.3%M vs +0.1% | -4.1%M vs +1.7% | +1.1%M vs +4.3% | -4.4%M vs +11.9% |
The same event split by where SMCI stood against its 200-, 50- and 20-day averages when it happened (a dip in an uptrend vs a falling knife); "vs" is the plain any-day median in that trend; "now" marks where it stands today. Splitting halves the evidence, so watch the confidence letters: H / M / L.
Latest mention spikes
| Event | Entry | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 10, 2026 | Aug 11 @ $31.60 | 41 mentions vs 6.1/day the week before | +19.0% | +18.4% | +18.3% | … |
| Jul 21, 2026 | Jul 22 @ $30.56 | 103 mentions vs 3.4/day the week before | +2.1% | -15.9% | +19.4% | … |
| Jun 22, 2026 | Jun 23 @ $33.32 | 71 mentions vs 2.9/day the week before | -2.6% | -12.0% | -6.4% | +24.7% |
| Jun 10, 2026 | Jun 11 @ $31.97 | 116 mentions vs 8.9/day the week before | -4.7% | -4.1% | -13.5% | +25.4% |
| May 28, 2026 | May 29 @ $46.09 | 53 mentions vs 3.4/day the week before | +1.7% | -9.7% | -36.4% | -19.5% |
| May 14, 2026 | May 15 @ $31.04 | 43 mentions vs 12.3/day the week before | -0.6% | +14.6% | -5.9% | +23.3% |
| May 5, 2026 | May 6 @ $34.66 | 148 mentions vs 5.1/day the week before | -3.0% | -7.7% | +20.1% | -15.2% |
| Apr 23, 2026 | Apr 24 @ $29.08 | 34 mentions vs 1.7/day the week before | -4.2% | -6.8% | +27.6% | +2.5% |
| Mar 19, 2026 | Mar 20 @ $20.53 | 52 mentions vs 1.0/day the week before | +5.1% | +7.0% | +38.5% | +72.7% |
| Feb 3, 2026 | Feb 4 @ $33.76 | 200 mentions vs 5.9/day the week before | -8.6% | -5.1% | -7.3% | +2.7% |
| Nov 4, 2025 | Nov 5 @ $42.03 | 63 mentions vs 0.9/day the week before | -4.0% | -9.8% | -17.5% | -18.2% |
| Oct 1, 2025 | Oct 2 @ $52.50 | 28 mentions vs 1.9/day the week before | -1.0% | +10.4% | -1.0% | -41.0% |
| Sep 9, 2025 | Sep 10 @ $43.91 | 23 mentions vs 1.0/day the week before | +0.1% | +2.3% | +32.0% | -20.2% |
| Aug 5, 2025 | Aug 6 @ $46.79 | 206 mentions vs 20.9/day the week before | -0.3% | -1.5% | -13.6% | +1.3% |
| Jul 28, 2025 | Jul 29 @ $58.63 | 77 mentions vs 7.9/day the week before | +3.5% | -2.3% | -23.7% | -12.0% |
Aftermath: entry is the close of the first session the event was fully known (the same session for price moves, the reaction session for earnings, the next session for Reddit, analyst and insider events, which are dated by day). Repeats within a few sessions count as one event. Past performance after an event says nothing certain about the next one. Not advice.