SMCI
Moving with its ai servers & data centers peers
- SMCI −4.81% on the last session vs SPY +0.06%: −4.9 pts of stock-specific move.
- AI servers & data centers basket -5.6% (-5.6 pts vs SPY; DELL -9.1%, HPE -6.7%, VRT -6.5%, GEV -3.0%): the stock moved with its peers.
- Filing: 8-K: executive or director change (item 5.02) (filing)
- Aftermath, big drop (Oct 14): After its 70 big drops in the past 5 years, SMCI was higher a day later 39 times out of 70; half the outcomes fell between -2.4% and +4.1%. History, not a forecast.
- 12 Reddit mentions in the past 24 hours, 74% positive over the week.
- 2 analyst actions in the past 10 days (2 positive, 0 negative); latest: Citigroup maintained Neutral, raised target $39.00 → $45.00.
- 2 insider or congressional trades in the past 30 days.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices SMCI only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
37.35 +4.4% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
39.40 +10.1% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 34.06 · prior close 35.78 | |
| Bargain buy side |
34.27 -4.2% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
32.50 -9.2% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 33.80 | 2 in 10 days | 37.88 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 34.27 | 3 in 10 days | 37.35 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 34.72 | 4 in 10 days | 36.87 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 31.50 | 2 in 10 weeks | 40.65 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 32.50 | 3 in 10 weeks | 39.40 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 33.46 | 4 in 10 weeks | 38.26 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From SMCI's daily swings (about 4.5% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 14, 2026 | -8.4% | +12.1% | +6.3% | — |
| Jul 29, 2026 | -9.7% | +18.0% | +49.6% | — |
| Jul 16, 2026 | -8.2% | +26.4% | +61.4% | +45.0% |
| Jun 29, 2026 | -8.1% | -6.7% | -8.7% | +48.4% |
| Jun 5, 2026 | -11.2% | -26.8% | -32.3% | -4.9% |
| Apr 23, 2026 | -8.3% | +2.4% | +33.0% | +12.5% |
| Mar 20, 2026 | -33.3% | +7.0% | +38.5% | +72.7% |
| Feb 5, 2026 | -8.6% | -1.4% | +3.7% | +9.0% |
Big drop and big gain: among SMCI's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Mar 13, 2024 |
118.81 +248.8% |
| Highest analyst target | 60.00 +76.2% |
| 52-week closing high Oct 20, 2025 |
55.04 +61.6% |
| Mean analyst target | 42.27 +24.1% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 39.40 +15.7% |
| 50-day average | 38.60 +13.3% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
35.78 +5.0% |
| Now | 34.06 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 32.50 -4.6% |
| 200-day average | 32.45 -4.7% |
| 52-week closing low Mar 20, 2026 |
20.53 -39.7% |
| Lowest analyst target | 15.00 -56.0% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 20 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.