SMFG
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices SMFG only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Next session | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
24.55 +1.5% reached 3 in 10 days |
25.00 +3.3% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Last close | 24.20 | |
| Bargain buy side |
23.85 -1.4% reached 3 in 10 days |
23.43 -3.2% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Next session | ||||
| Patient | 23.74 | 2 in 10 days | 24.67 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 23.85 | 3 in 10 days | 24.55 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 23.96 | 4 in 10 days | 24.45 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 23.18 | 2 in 10 weeks | 25.26 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 23.43 | 3 in 10 weeks | 25.00 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 23.66 | 4 in 10 weeks | 24.75 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From SMFG's daily swings (about 1.5% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 30 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 30 close
Big drop and big gain: among SMFG's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time and 52-week closing high Sep 3, 2026 |
27.56 +13.9% |
| 50-day average | 25.59 +5.7% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 25.00 +3.3% |
| Last close Oct 30, 2026 |
24.20 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 23.43 -3.2% |
| 200-day average | 23.39 -3.4% |
| 52-week closing low Nov 4, 2025 |
16.14 -33.3% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 21 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from the last close. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.