SMG
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- SMG +7.60% on the last session vs SPY +0.05%: +7.6 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices SMG only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
50.66 +1.9% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
51.84 +4.3% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 53.50 · prior close 49.72 | |
| Bargain buy side |
48.80 -1.8% reached 3 in 10 days |
47.69 -4.1% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 48.51 | 2 in 10 days | 50.96 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 48.80 | 3 in 10 days | 50.66 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 49.08 | 4 in 10 days | 50.37 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 47.05 | 2 in 10 weeks | 52.54 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 47.69 | 3 in 10 weeks | 51.84 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 48.30 | 4 in 10 weeks | 51.19 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From SMG's daily swings (about 1.9% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among SMG's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Apr 5, 2021 |
206.23 +285.5% |
| 52-week closing high Jul 16, 2026 |
72.68 +35.8% |
| 200-day average | 60.99 +14.0% |
| 50-day average | 55.82 +4.3% |
| Now | 53.50 |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 51.84 -3.1% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
49.72 -7.1% |
| 52-week closing low Sep 28, 2026 |
48.44 -9.5% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 47.69 -10.9% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 35 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.